基于随机前沿法的宁波市农业科技进步贡献率测算研究OA

Measuring the contribution rate of agricultural technological progress helps evaluate the role of technological progress in agricultural output growth more scientifically and accurately,providing an important basis for assessing the agricultural development of a region and formu-lating policies.To measure this rate in Ningbo for the start and the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan,this paper uses yearbook data during 2008-2022 at the city level and nine county-level units.Employing the stochastic frontier approach to construct a translog and a with-time-trend C-D production function,it estimates the rate for 2020 and projects the corresponding 2025 estimate.The results show:the agricultural technological progress has significantly contributed to Ningbo's agricultural growth,with the contribution rate exceeding 65%in 2020 and projected to rise further to over 70%by 2025;capital investment continues to play a crucial role in agricultural output growth,while the output elasticity of la-bor and land inputs remains relatively low;technical efficiency and the narrow technological progress rate have declined or remained at low lev-els,and the neutral technological progress rate accounts for a large proportion of the narrow technological progress rate.Based on the contribu-tion rates of each factor and their changes,potential directions for improving resource allocation and production efficiency are identified,the importance of promoting new technologies for achieving agricultural growth is emphasized,and it is pointed out that the rate should not be the sole criterion for evaluating the role of technological progress in agricultural development.The paper proposes constructing a comprehensive e-valuation index system to fully assess the effectiveness of agricultural science and technology innovation.