肺结节患者胸腔镜术后并发症风险的预测模型分析OA

[Objective]To develop a prediction model for complication risk in patients with pulmonary nodules undergoing thoracoscopic surgery and investigate its predictive value.[Methods]A total of 106 patients who underwent thoracoscopic pulmonary nodule resection at the 989th Hospital of the Joint Logistics Support Force of the Chinese People's Liberation Army from January 2022 to March 2025 were included.Based on the occurrence of complications within 30 days postoperatively,they were divided into a complication group(22 cases)and a non-complication group(84 cases).Baseline data were collected,and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify key factors influencing postoperative complications.A prediction model was subsequently constructed.[Results]The proportion of patients aged over 45 years with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD),intraoperative bleeding≥200 mL and operation time≥120 min in the complication group was higher than that in the non-complication group(P＜0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the age of over 45 years old,COPD,intraoperative blood loss≥200 mL and operation time≥120 min were independent risk factors for complications after thoracoscopic surgery in patients with pulmonary nodules(P＜0.05).A prediction model incorporating the above risk factors demonstrated an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)of 0.814(standard error:0.072;95%CI:0.759-0.917),with sensitivity and specificity of 0.821 and 0.874,respectively.[Conclusion]Age,COPD,intraoperative blood loss and operation time are all independent risk factors for complications after thoracoscopic surgery in patients with pulmonary nodules,and the prediction model based on the above variables has good predictive value.