2023年广东气候异常特征及成因OA

The year 2023 witnessed extreme climate anomalies worldwide,including in Guangdong.This study investigated the climatic trends in Guangdong over the past six decades,focusing on the characteristics and causes of anomalies observed in 2023.The analysis relied on daily observational data from 86 national meteorological stations in Guangdong,covering the years 1961 to 2024,and utilized methods such as linear trend analysis.The results indicated that over the past 60 years,Guangdong has experienced a significant increase in annual average temperature,along with a rise in the number of high-temperature days.Precipitation and heavy rainfall days exhibited decadal fluctuations and interannual variations,while the total number of rainy days decreased.The climate of 2023 exhibited several distinctive features:exceptionally high temperatures and prominent heatwaves,frequent regional heavy rainfall events featuring extreme short-term precipitation and a prolonged flood season,and a typhoon season characterized by a late first-landfall typhoon but overall higher frequency and intensity of typhoons.The primary causes of these anomalies were identified as follows:Below-average precipitation during the early flood season was mainly associated with the preceding La Niña event,reduced snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau in the previous winter,and an intensified East Asian Summer Monsoon.In summer,the combination of above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation was influenced by the development of El Niño,warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean,and a stronger,westerly-shifted Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH).In autumn,above-average precipitation resulted from the combined effects of El Niño,meridional shifts in the position of the WPSH,the activities of four typhoons that closely approached or made landfall,and the specific configuration of the westerly circulation.