新疆人-地-粮系统适配性演化与优化调控OA

Amid escalating synergistic pressures on population,land,and food resources,elucidating the adaptive evolution of the human-land-food nexus is crucial for regional sustainable development.Utilizing data on population,arable land,and grain in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020,this study applied an adaptability quantification model,a four-quadrant model,a Markov transition matrix,and an obstacle degree model to reveal its spatiotemporal evolution and coordination mechanisms.The results show that:1)From 2000 to 2020,the comprehensive development index of the coupled system increased from 0.157 8 to 0.218 5,with an average annual growth rate of 1.39%.The arable land and grain subsystems grew at rates of 1.99%and 1.90%per year,respectively,while the population subsystem grew at a lower rate of 0.32%.2)System adaptability improved continuously,with the proportion of highly adaptable regions increasing from 20%to 31%,exhibiting an evolutionary pattern of"point breakthroughs to areal expansion".3)The proportion of regions in the first quadrant(high adaptability-high development)remained stable at 48%-56%and the Markov transition matrix showed a self-sustaining probability of 95%,indicating strong systemic stability.4)From 2000 to 2020,the obstacle degrees of the arable land and grain subsystems declined from 45%and 43%to 40%and 25%,respectively.In contrast,the obstacle degree of the population subsystem rose from 12%to 35%,suggesting that population and arable land have gradually become the primary bottlenecks for coordinated development.This study provides a valuable reference for analyzing the human-land-food nexus in arid regions and offers insight to assist Xinjiang in optimizing population distribution and land-use structures under multiple resource constraints,thereby enhancing grain production resilience and fostering high-quality and sustainable regional development.