省级突发地质灾害应急预案的量化评价与区域差异研究OA

The completeness and scientific rigor of provincial-level emergency response plans for sudden geological disasters serve as the institutional cornerstone for regional disaster resilience.However,existing research often overlooks the content characteristics and regional variations of these critical documents.To address this gap,a mixed-method ap-proach combining text mining with the Policy Modeling Consistency(PMC)index model is employed to systematically evaluate 28 effective provincial emergency response plans in China.Utilizing ROST CM6 software,high-frequency key-words are extracted to construct an objective evaluation system comprising 9 primary indicators(e.g.,Early Warning,Emergency Disposal)and 56 secondary indicators.The results indicate:①The average PMC index is 7.15,reflecting generally sound textual quality.However,a significant structural imbalance exists:while plans excel in"Emergency Dis-posal"(X6),they are notably weak in"Post-disaster Recovery"(X7)and"Plan Management"(X9),specifically lack-ing institutionalized mechanisms for assessment and revision.②There is significant regional heterogeneity rooted in a"Dual-Drive"mechanism:High-risk provinces(e.g.,Sichuan,Yunnan)exhibit a significantly higher average PMC(7.31),driven by"Risk-Experience"derived from repeated real-world combat,thus excelling in practical dimensions like early warning response.Conversely,high-governance provinces(e.g.,Beijing,Shanghai)are driven by"Governance-Norms",outperforming in procedural dimensions like organizational command due to superior administra-tive standardization.Consequently,an optimization mechanism integrating"Scientific Logic"and"Practical Inspec-tion"is proposed.Specific strategies include establishing a closed-loop for plan revision and adopting a"Modular+Scenario-based"architecture,which consists of a stable"Core Master Plan"for normative guidance and dynamic"Sce-nario Action Manuals"for tactical flexibility.These findings provide theoretical support and actionable guidance for local governments to enhance both the theoretical rigor and practical operability of emergency plans.