河冰模型SkyRices的研发及应用案例分析OA

In high-latitude cold regions,hydraulic infrastructure is significantly affected by water-ice phase transi-tions,which can lead to frost heave,ice-induced scour and compression,and ice flood events.This study presents the development of the river ice model or SkyRices,a comprehensive simulation framework grounded in the thermody-namic and dynamic processes of winter river systems,including heat loss,ice production,river freeze-up,and break-up.The model integrates three key components:an intelligent ensemble forecasting system for river ice and water temperatures,a one-dimensional river ice dynamics module,and a two-dimensional coupled simulation of water,ice,and sediment.The SkyRices model was applied to multiple scenarios,including the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project,the major water network project in Jilin Province,and the Northern Xinji-ang water supply system.Simulation results demonstrate that the model effectively captures heat loss and water tem-perature variations under typical cold wave conditions,the evolution of ice processes influenced by complex hydrau-lic structures,and the dynamics of ice flood formation driven by interactions among water,ice,and sediment.The findings suggest that the SkyRices model is well-suited for hydrological forecasting of river ice conditions and full-process simulation of ice regimes in rivers,canals,and reservoirs.Its application supports intelligent water manage-ment and enhances ice disaster prevention and mitigation efforts.