流域产汇流及洪水预报模型(Sky-RyCF)软件平台研发与应用OA

To support the construction of digital twin watersheds and the development of smart water conservancy,addressing issues such as weak physical mechanisms,limited functionality,poor adaptability of current hydrological models,and the low efficiency of loose multi-model coupling,this research developed a generalized model software system(Runoff Yield and Concentration in Watersheds and Flood Forecast Model,Sky-RyCF)integrating the entire chain of meteorological forecasting,watershed runoff yield and concentration,flood forecasting,and reservoir opera-tion.Based on a self-developed model system from the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,the model takes the"natural-social"dual water cycle theory as its core,and deeply integrates core mod-ules—including numerical weather prediction,distributed runoff yield,spatiotemporal variable source runoff genera-tion,1D/2D hydrodynamic flood routing,social water cycle simulation,and multi-objective reservoir operation—through standardized interfaces.An integrated platform supporting multi-model coupling and visual modeling was con-structed.Application results demonstrate that:during the replay simulation of the"23·7"extreme flood in the Yong-ding River Basin,the forecasted peak flow at Lugou Bridge was 4540 m³/s(measured 4650 m³/s),with a simulated inundation area error in the floodplain being≤2.0%;in the water resources assessment of the Songhua River Basin,the monthly runoff simulation at major hydrological stations achieved Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients greater than 0.7,quantitatively revealing the evolution patterns of water resources.The model system is characterized by strong physical mechanisms,comprehensive functionality,and intelligent generalizability,enabling refined simula-tion of multiple water cycle processes and operational application.It provides core technical support for the"Four Pre-"functions(forecast,warning,pre-run,plan)in water conservancy and the smart water management business.