"一带一路"倡议对可持续发展目标进展的影响OA
Effect of the Belt and Road Initiative on progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals:a perspective of deepening international connectivity
科学评估"一带一路"倡议实施10年来的政治、经济、社会与环境影响,是当前战略管理研究的重要议题.该研究从可持续发展目标(Sustainable Development Goals,SDGs)这一全球"通用语言"出发,基于权威的可持续发展目标实施评估数据,采取双重差分法系统评估"一带一路"倡议对国家层面可持续发展目标执行进展的政策效应.研究表明:①作为覆盖全球范围的国际合作框架,"一带一路"倡议已经成为促进全球可持续发展的重要公共产品,加入"一带一路"倡议显著推动了共建国家的可持续发展目标执行进展,总体贡献度为5.60%.②"一带一路"倡议的政策效应在不同目标和不同国家之间呈现"非平衡"特征.具体而言,在目标层面,"一带一路"倡议对社会经济领域的目标执行进展的贡献尤为突出,对SDG2、SDG3、SDG6贡献率分别为18.81%、11.07%和7.43%,而对气候与环境领域的目标执行进展没有表现出显著影响.在国家层面,执行可持续发展目标意愿越强、国家治理水平越高、与中国外交合作基础越好的国家,加入该倡议后获益越大,可持续发展目标执行进展显著领先其他国家.③在考虑并排除样本选择偏误、自选择偏误、政策唯一性、遗漏变量等因素的影响后,估计结果仍然稳健,表明"一带一路"倡议对可持续发展目标执行进展具有真实的促进效应.最后,基于研究结论提出了完善推进高质量共建"一带一路"机制的政策建议.
Evaluating the political,economic,social,and environmental impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)over the past de-cade constitutes a critical subject in contemporary strategic management research.This study employed the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)—a global"common language"—as its analytical framework.Utilizing SDGs implementation data assessed by the SDSN,this study systematically analyzed the policy effects of the BRI on national-level SDGs progress through a difference-in-differences(DID)methodology.The key findings included:① As a global cooperation framework,the BRI has become an important public good for promoting global sustainable development.Joining the BRI significantly promoted the implementation progress of SDGs in participating countries,with an overall contribution rate of 5.60%.② The policy effects of the BRI showed"unbalanced"characteristics across goals and countries.Specifically,the BRI made particularly prominent contributions to the implementation progress of socioeconomic goals.The contribution rates to SDG2,SDG3,and SDG6 were 18.81%,11.07%,and 7.43%,respectively,while it showed no significant im-pact on the progress of SDGs in the climate and environmental fields.At the national level,the stronger a country's willingness to partic-ipate in SDGs,the higher its national governance level,and the better its diplomatic cooperation foundation with China,the greater the promoting effect of joining the BRI.③ After considering and excluding the influences of factors such as sample selection bias,self-se-lection bias,policy uniqueness,and omitted variables,this study's estimation of the policy effects of the BRI remained robust.Finally,based on the conclusions,policy suggestions are put forward to improve and promote the mechanisms for high-quality joint construction of the BRI.
沈体雁;左万水;梁杰凯
北京大学政府管理学院,北京 100871||北京大学武汉人工智能研究院,湖北 武汉 430074北京大学政府管理学院,北京 100871北京大学政府管理学院,北京 100871
管理科学
"一带一路"倡议可持续发展目标互联互通双重差分法政策效应
Belt and Road InitiativeSustainable Development Goalsconnectivitydifference-in-differencespolicy effect
《中国人口·资源与环境》 2026 (2)
1-14,14
教育部人文社会科学基金项目"全过程视角下企业数字化转型的减污降碳协同效应研究"(批准号:24YJC790042).
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