中国农业新质生产力发展水平的区域差异、时空演变及收敛分析OA

New-quality agricultural productive forces are key driving forces for agricultural modernization and the construction of an agricultural power.To scientifically measure its development level,from the perspective of input-output factor restructuring,this paper employs the XGBoost algorithm to calculate the new-quality agricultural productive of forces 31 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022,and conducts an in-depth analysis from three dimensions:regional differences,spatiotemporal evolution,and convergence.The research findings are as follows:First,in terms of the overall pattern,grain-consuming regions and eastern China take the leading position in the development level of new-quality agricultural productive forces,and the national distribution shows a right-skewed characteristic,with grain-producing regions,central regions,and western grain production-marketing balance regions forming a gradient gap in turn.Second,regional differences present a"club convergence"phenomenon;in geographical zoning,inter-group differences are the primary source of overall differences,while in functional zoning,hypervariable density contributes more significantly.Moreover,internal differences in western China are the most prominent,and inter-group differences show an overall fluctuating downward trend.Third,from the temporal dimension,the kernel density curve continues to shift to the right and the polarization trend weakens;the"frog-jump effect"and spatial spillover effect are intertwined,and the impact of spatial adjacency status on shaping the regional development pattern is particularly profound.Fourth,significant absolute β-convergence and conditional β-convergence exist nationwide,in the eastern,central and western regions,and among various grain functional zones.Each region converges to its own steady-state level,presenting the diversified convergence characteristics of"spatial linkage,factor coordination,and type differentiation".Based on the heterogeneity of regional development,this paper proposes a path to enhance new-quality agricultural productive forces centered on technological innovation-driven development,green development-led progress,and digital economy-enabled empowerment,providing a scientific basis for relevant decision-making,helping China's agriculture realize the leap from"a large country with small-scale farming"to"a strong agricultural nation",and promoting the high-quality and sustainable development of agriculture.