基于SI1I2R模型的高校突发事件网络谣言传播动力学研究OA
Research on the Dynamics of Online Rumor Propagation in University Emergencies Based on the SI1I2R Model
本文借鉴传染病动力学建模思想和方法,模拟高校突发事件中网络谣言的传播规律.首先,将高校人群分为易感者(S)、谣言传播者(I1)、真相辟谣者(I2)和免疫者(R)四类,建立了SI1I2R网络谣言模型;其次,利用下一代矩阵法计算出基本再生数,理论分析了零谣言和真相传播平衡点、两类非平凡传播平衡点和正平衡点的存在性和稳定性;最后,利用Matlab软件进行数值模拟,进一步验证了网络谣言传播的动力学行为.研究结果表明,在事件发生前,学校应对学生做好网络安全教育,加强学生的信息识别能力,帮助学生做到不信谣不传谣;在事件发生时,学校应及时发布权威信息,稳定学生的情绪,掐断谣言源头,确保学生明确事实真相,进一步遏制谣言的传播.
Using the ideas and methods of infectious disease dynamics modeling to simulate the spread of online rumors in college emergencies can provide reference for relevant departments of schools to effectively control the spread of rumors,so as to more effectively manage and control the spread of rumors.Firstly,the university population is divided into four categories:susceptible(S),rumor spreader(I1),truth denier(I2)and immune(R),and the SI1I2R network rumor model is established;Secondly,the next gener-ation matrix method is used to calculate the basic reproduction number,and the existence and stability of zero rumor and truth transmission equilibrium points,two kinds of nontrivial transmission equilibrium points and positive equilibrium points are theoretically analyzed;Finally,matlab software is used to carry out numerical simulation to further verify the dynamic behavior of online rumor spread.The research results show that schools should strengthen students'network security education,improve students'in-formation recognition ability,and help students not believe rumors or spread rumors before the incident;When an incident occurs,the school should timely release authoritative information,stabilize students'emotions,cut off the source of rumors,ensure that students know the truth,and further curb the spread of rumors.
刘志梅;买阿丽
运城学院数学与信息技术学院,山西 运城 044000运城学院数学与信息技术学院,山西 运城 044000
数理科学
网络谣言SI1I2R模型基本再生数稳定性
Online rumorsSI1I2R modelBasic regeneration numberStability
《应用数学》 2026 (2)
427-435,9
国家自然科学基金项目(12101547)山西省高等学校科技创新项目(2020L0551)山西省重点扶持学科计算机科学与技术项目运城学院科研项目(YY-202216)
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