近30年黄泛区人类活动强度与水-碳生态服务功能匹配的时空关联特征OA

[Objective]This study aims to clarify the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of water-carbon ecosystem service function matching under different human activity intensities,reveal their zoning response patterns and mechanisms of action,and provide theoretical guidance for promoting regional water-carbon synergistic development.[Methods]Based on comprehensive indicator weighting and correlation analysis methods,this study quantified the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of human activity intensity(HAI)and the trade-off/synergy relationships between water yield(WY)and carbon sequestration(CS)in the Yellow River Floodplain(YRFP)from 1990 to 2020,and constructed an HAI-water-carbon ecosystem service function matching response zoning model to identify their coupling patterns and zoning dynamics.Furthermore,partial least squares structural equation modeling(PLS-SEM)was applied to areas with low,medium,and high levels of HAI to systematically reveal the differentiated response pathways and dominant mechanisms of water-carbon ecosystem service function matching.[Results](1)The YRFP exhibited a"multi-core-transition-periphery"gradient structure of HAI,forming a spatiotemporal evolution pattern characterized by"the coexistence of dynamic expansion and local regression",with the core urban areas,especially in Zhengzhou,showing prominent expansion.From 1990 to 2020,HAI exhibited a continuous increase and a dynamic shift toward higher levels,with high-intensity areas increasing by 0.34%between 2000 and 2010.(2)From 1990 to 2000,a key transition from trade-off to synergy occurred between WY and CS services,with the proportion of areas showing strong synergy increasing from 2%to 11%.From 2000 to 2020,spatial synergy remained the dominant mode of interaction.(3)From 2010 to 2020,the area proportion of water-carbon ecosystem service function matching response zones under medium and high HAI increased significantly.Except for the high-intensity-synergy zone,all other types expanded,with increase rates of 0.06%(high-intensity-trade-off zone),0.57%(medium-intensity-trade-off zone),and 0.55%(medium-intensity-synergy zone),primarily converted from no-response zones and low-intensity control zones in 2010.(4)From 1990 to 2020,in low-HAI control zones,the total effect of HAI on water-carbon ecosystem service function matching turned negative from 2010 onward(-0.129 in 2010,-0.233 in 2020),indicating that human activity significantly promoted WY-CS synergy.In medium-and high-HAI control zones,the total effects(significant)between 2000 and 2020 were 0.235,0.158,and 0.188,respectively.Although indirect effects slightly mitigated them after 2010,they did not reverse the overall trade-off trend.In both 2010 and 2020,the dominant observed factors of HAI across all intensity zones were agricultural,industrial,and domestic water consumption,followed by GDP density and population density.[Conclusion]HAI significantly influences the evolution pathways of WY-CS trade-off/synergy relationships in the YRFP.Under medium-and high-intensity disturbances,trade-off zones have expanded considerably.Therefore,strengthening the coordinated management of water use behaviors and socioeconomic factors is critical for achieving ecological synergy.