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基于深度学习的高分辨率中国区域气候模式模拟器OA

A high-resolution regional climate model emulator for China based on deep learning

中文摘要英文摘要

在全球气候变化背景下,提升东亚区域气候模拟的精度对理解气候变化影响具有重要意义.为了解决全球气候模式(Global Climate Model,GCM)空间分辨率不足的问题,采用区域气候模式模拟数据,基于深度学习神经网络构建了新型区域气候模拟器(RCM-Emulator),开展了东亚区域的高分辨率降尺度试验.模型结构引入高分辨率地形与海陆掩码约束,并针对气温和降水分别增加入射短波辐射与地表潜热通量输入,以增强模型对能量收支和水汽输送过程的响应能力.针对降水分布高度偏态的特征,引入伯努利-伽马损失函数,以提升极端降水的再现能力.试验结果表明,模拟器在以RegCM4模拟为训练样本的同源试验中能够高保真地重现近地面气温和降水场,RMSE显著低于双线性插值.以ERA5驱动的模拟器试验结果表明,模拟器能较好地再现地面气温和降水的空间分布和时间变化特征,表现出良好的跨资料泛化能力.总体上,该区域气候模拟器兼具物理一致性与计算高效性,可在分钟级时间尺度内生成多年区域气候场,为区域气候变化研究、多情景集合模拟及风险评估提供了一种高精度、低成本的新途径.

Accurately simulating regional climate over East Asia has become increasingly important for understanding the impacts of global climate change.To overcome the coarse spatial resolution of Global Climate Models(GCMs),this study develops a novel Regional Climate Model Emulator(RCM-Emulator)based on deep learning techniques and conducts high-resolution downscaling experiments over East Asia.The proposed model integrates high-resolution topographic and land-sea mask constraints,and introduces additional inputs of incoming shortwave radiation and surface latent heat flux for temperature and precipitation,respectively,thereby enhancing its sensitivity to energy balance and moisture transport processes.Furthermore,a Bernoulli-Gamma loss function is adopted to address the highly skewed nature of precipitation distributions and to improve the representation of extreme rainfall.Results demonstrate that the model can faithfully reconstruct near-surface temperature and precipitation fields in homogeneous experiments using RegCM4 simulations,with the spatial biases remaining minimal and the RMSE values significantly lower than those of bilinear interpolation.When transferred to the ERA5 reanalysis dataset without additional calibration,the emulator successfully reproduces the spatial patterns and temporal variations of the reference data,exhibiting strong cross-dataset generalization.Overall,the proposed RCM-Emulator achieves high physical consistency and computational efficiency,enabling the generation of multi-year regional climate fields within minutes.This approach provides a promising,high-accuracy,and low-cost alternative for regional climate studies,ensemble simulations,and climate risk assessments.

牛遥;汤剑平

灾害天气科学与技术全国重点实验室,中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室,南京大学大气科学学院,南京,210023灾害天气科学与技术全国重点实验室,中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室,南京大学大气科学学院,南京,210023

天文与地球科学

东亚区域深度学习区域气候模拟器Transformer

East Asiadeep learningRCM-EmulatorTransformer

《南京大学学报(自然科学版)》 2026 (2)

218-235,18

国家重点研发计划(2023YFF0805404)

10.13232/j.cnki.jnju.2026.02.005

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