中国农业气候韧性的水平测度、动态演进及其影响因素OACHSSCD

Enhancing agricultural climate resilience is of great significance for ensuring national food security and agricultural production stability.Based on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2006 to 2022,this study constructs an evaluation index system for agricultural climate resilience from three dimensions:resistance,adaptability,and transformability.A comprehensive approach incorporating the entropy method,Moran's Index,kernel density estimation,Markov chain,Dagum Gini coefficient,and geographical detector model is employed to explore the dynamic evolution,regional disparities,and influencing factors of agricultural climate resilience.The results indicate the following.First,agricultural climate resilience in China has shown a gradual upward trend over the years,though the overall level re-mains relatively low,with higher resilience observed in the eastern and central regions.Among the three dimensions,resistance ranks highest,followed by transformability and adaptability.Second,agricultural climate resilience exhibits significant positive spatial autocorrelation,mainly characterized by"high-high"and"low-low"agglomeration patterns.Third,a polarization phenomenon exists,although its intensity has weakened.It is difficult for provinces to achieve upward transitions across resilience levels in the short term,while improving spatial lag levels can enhance the probability of upward mobility in local agri-cultural climate resilience.Fourth,regional disparities in agricultural climate resilience in China exhibit a fluctuating upward trend,primarily driven by inter-group variation and transvariation density.Fifth,key factors influencing the spatial heterogeneity of agricultural climate resilience include land-scale manage-ment,road accessibility,openness to foreign trade,and fiscal support for agriculture,with significant inter-active enhancement effects among these factors.