"趋粮化"抑或"非粮化":粮食安全目标下经济政策不确定性与种植结构变化OACHSSCD

Using data from the China Family Database,this study employs the instrumental vari-able method to identify the causal effects of economic policy uncertainty on planting structure and the un-derlying mechanisms.The research results are as follows.First,from 2008 to 2021,the overall uncertainty of China's economic policies considering inter provincial heterogeneity exhibited a fluctuating downward trend.Second,an increase in economic policy uncertainty accelerates the"non-grain"shift in planting structure.The results remain robust after addressing endogeneity,with the effect being more pronounced among households with higher agricultural income and among middle-aged and younger farmers.Third,economic policy uncertainty accelerates the"non-grain"shift by curbing land transfer,and mitigates this shift by reducing informal credit constraints.Based on these findings,policy recommendations are pro-posed,including improving transparency in policy formulation and implementation,guiding orderly land transfer,and gradually improving financial markets.