东道国地缘政治风险与中国企业对外直接投资区位选择OACHSSCD
Geopolitical Risks of Host Countries and Location Choice of Outward Foreign Direct Investments(OFDI)of Chinese Enterprises:From the Perspective of Supply Chain Shocks
当前地缘政治风险对我国企业国际经济参与的影响日益凸显.基于异质性企业投资模型刻画地缘政治风险冲击下企业的国际直接投资决策,利用2008-2022年中国A股上市公司数据,采用巴以冲突伤亡人数构建工具变量,发现地缘政治风险水平的提升增加了企业在东道国的直接投资.机制分析发现,贸易成本提升、供应链冲击和东道国宏观经济政策共同导致这一现象,这反映了地缘政治风险升高背景下企业的主动供应链重构.进一步分析表明,经济政策不确定性放大了地缘政治风险对企业对外直接投资区位选择的影响.引入贸易摩擦情况下,地缘政治风险与企业对外直接投资间的关联存在国际政治经济合作框架层面的异质性.
The impact of geopolitical risks on Chinese enterprises' participation in the global economy has be-come increasingly pronounced.Developing a heterogeneous firm investment model to characterize firms' interna-tional direct investment decisions under geopolitical risk shocks.Utilizing the data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2022 and employing casualty figures from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as an instrumental variable,finding elevated geopolitical risks in a host country leads to a significant increase in direct investment by Chinese firms.This phenomenon is jointly driven by rising trade costs,supply chain disruptions,and the host coun-try's macroeconomic policies,indicating an active supply chain relocation in response to geopolitical risks.Further analysis reveals that economic policy uncertainty amplifies the influence of geopolitical risks on the location choice of firms' outward foreign direct investment.Moreover,against the backdrop of trade frictions,the relationship be-tween geopolitical risks and outward foreign direct investment exhibits heterogeneity depending on the framework of international political and economic cooperation.
黄新飞;陈海涛
中山大学国际金融学院,广东珠海 519082||中山大学高级金融研究院,广东 广州 510275中山大学国际金融学院,广东珠海 519082
管理科学
地缘政治风险对外直接投资供应链冲击
geopolitical riskoutward foreign direct investmentsupply chain shock
《湖南大学学报（社会科学版）》 2026 (2)
53-68,16
国家社会科学基金重大项目:以优化区域开放布局推动形成全面开放新格局的体制机制研究(25&ZD192)广东省自然科学基金卓越青年团队项目:基于双循环背景下中国双向直接投资理论与应用研究(2024B1515040021)
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