考虑级联效应的煤炭公铁联运网络韧性评估模型OA

To address the limitations of existing research in adequately characterizing road-rail topological coupling and the mechanisms of cross-system load transfer and transmission time lags during node failures,this study constructs a topology model for coal multimodal transport networks that incorporates road-rail syn-ergistic structures.A cascading failure evolution mechanism is proposed,explicitly accounting for capacity constraints,cross-system transshipment,and transmission time lags.Addressing functional maintenance and recovery needs throughout the disturbance lifecycle,a three-dimensional resilience assessment index system,comprising resistance,absorption,and recovery capabilities,is established to quantify functional attenua-tion and restoration under varying disturbance intensities and scopes.Furthermore,two load redistribution strategies based on network structure and capacity distribution are designed to compare resilience under sce-narios of key node failure,cascading congestion,and cross-mode substitution.To characterize the impact of differentiated disturbances such as intentional attacks and natural disasters,a dynamic disturbance strategy based on grey information is introduced to simulate attack selection and resilience evolution under varying levels of network knowledge.Finally,a typical Chinese coal transport corridor is used as a case study to simulate the scenario.Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model effectively captures key node failure characteristics and cascading evolution dynamics.The findings reveal that load redistribution strategies and disturbance modes significantly influence system resilience,providing a theoretical basis for enhancing network resilience,optimizing road-rail capacity allocation,and improving emergency response.