高铁网络列车级联失效时变的脆弱性测度研究OA

This study investigates the time-varying vulnerability of high-speed rail(HSR)networks un-der cascading failures initiated by unexpected train halts that disrupt network links.Based on the actual passenger timetable of December 15,2023,the paper simulates the complete propagation process of cascading train failures under diverse attack strategies(random and intentional)and intensities.First,a cascading failure model is developed that captures the operational characteristics of HSR networks and analytically dissects the failure propagation mechanism.Subsequently,network performance metrics are designed from both structural and functional perspectives,incorporating temporal dynamics inher-ent in cascading failures,to establish integrated static and dynamic vulnerability assessment frame-works.Finally,using real-world Chinese HSR timetable data,a topological network is constructed and the interdependencies among trains,lines,and stations are formalized.Through cascading failure simulations,the static characteristics of stations and lines alongside the diurnal operational patterns of trains are analyzed,thereby revealing the temporal evolution of network vulnerability indicators.The results demonstrate that under low-intensity attacks within identical time windows,intentional target-ing disrupts significantly more trains than random failures.However,as attack intensity escalates,the differential impact between the two strategies diminishes.Under intentional attacks,trains traversing critical links during morning peak hours exhibit the greatest vulnerability and impose the most severe degradation on daily network performance.Therefore,prioritizing protective measures for morning peak corridors and implementing rapid recovery interventions constitute essential strategies for safe-guarding network performance and enhancing resilience.