基于交通生成的共享单车投放量估计方法研究OA
Research on estimating the deployment volume of shared bicycles based on traffic generation
为解决共享单车运营中存在的单车分布不均衡问题,文章提出一种共享单车投放量估算方法.对共享单车数据进行筛选分类,汇总得到不同停放站点的发生量和吸引量,评估共享单车供需平衡关系;使用灰色关联度和相关系数确定出行率影响指标,确定以住宅户数、占地面积、建筑面积作为输入变量,构建BP神经网络出行量预测模型;结合住宅建筑出行率及共享单车出行分担率,估算单车投放量.将该方法应用于合肥市实证分析,结果显示,投放量估算误差为6.48%,预测效果优于CNN、PSO-SVM等模型.此方法可有效生成共享单车投放量,为共享单车运营管理提供参考.
To address the issue of uneven distribution of shared bicycles in operations,the article proposes a method for estimating the deployment volume of shared bicycles.It screens and classifies shared bicycle data,summarizes the generation and attraction volumes at different parking stations,and evaluates the supply-demand balance of shared bicycles.Using gray relational analysis and correlation coefficients,it identifies the indicators affecting travel rates,selecting the number of residential units,land area,and building area as input variables to construct a BP neural network travel volume prediction model.By combining residential building travel rates and the travel share rate of shared bicycles,the deployment volume of bicycles is estimated.This method was applied in an empirical study in Hefei,and the results show that the estimation error of deployment volume is 6.48%,with prediction performance better than models such as CNN and PSO-SVM.This method can effectively generate shared bicycle deployment volumes,providing a reference for shared bicycle operation management.
王世广;唐卓佳;郝彤宇;汪颖;何瑾瑜
合肥工业大学汽车与交通工程学院,安徽 合肥 230009合肥工业大学汽车与交通工程学院,安徽 合肥 230009合肥工业大学汽车与交通工程学院,安徽 合肥 230009合肥工业大学汽车与交通工程学院,安徽 合肥 230009合肥工业大学汽车与交通工程学院,安徽 合肥 230009
交通工程
单车投放出行率共享单车需求预测神经网络
bicycle deploymenttrip ratebike sharingdemand forecastingneural network
《智能城市》 2026 (2)
13-16,4
安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目(AHSKQ2022D075)
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