"十五五"我国车用能源发展前景展望OA

Against the backdrop of China's economic slowdown,industrial restructuring,and the constraints of the dual carbon goals,the energy consumption structure in the transportation sector is undergoing profound changes.To assess the medium-to long-term development path of vehicle energy and provide decision-making references for the transformation of petroleum and petrochemical enterprises,this paper systematically examines the historical characteristics of refined oil consumption and the development trends of alternative energies.Based on a review of historical data on domestic refined oil demand,combined with trends in vehicle ownership and fleet composition,an analytical framework for the medium-to long-term demand trends of automotive gasoline and diesel is constructed.Simultaneously,by comparing the development status and economic efficiency(price parity)of alternative fuels such as electricity,LNG,hydrogen,methanol,and biodiesel,the competitive potential of various alternative pathways is evaluated.The study finds that:① Domestic refined oil demand has entered a high plateau phase,with peak characteristics evident in gasoline and diesel consumption;② The vehicle energy structure is accelerating its evolution towards"oil reduction and electrification,and a diversified energy mix,"with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continuing to rise rapidly;③ Significant differences exist among alternative fuels in terms of technological maturity,economic efficiency,and infrastructure dependence,with electricity having a prominent advantage in the passenger vehicle sector,LNG taking the lead in the commercial vehicle sector,and hydrogen and methanol still in the commercial exploration stage.Future vehicle energy will present a diversified competitive landscape,with refined oil consumption entering a long-term downward channel.Considering emerging policy directions such as the new regulations on refined oil circulation management,the"three-year doubling"action plan for charging infrastructure,and the low-altitude economy,it is recommended that petroleum and petrochemical enterprises leverage their existing advantages,actively participate in the construction of integrated energy supply networks,and focus on opportunities to integrate alternative fuels with existing industrial chains.Future research needs to further quantify the impact of policy interventions on the substitution process and pay attention to the potential incremental market brought by new business forms like the low-altitude economy.