2030年中国天然气"摇摆资源"产能展望OA
Outlook of China's Natural Gas"Swing Supply"in 2030
未来一段时期,国内天然气市场预计将维持供需相对宽松格局.需求增速放缓背景下,国内增储上产成效显著,煤层气、煤制气、焦炉煤气及生物质气等气源正成为供应体系重要增长极.此类资源兼具边际灵活性与产出波动性,成为牵动市场供需天平的关键"摇摆资源",其消纳规律深刻影响能源政策导向与企业战略抉择.长期以来,该领域缺乏系统性研究,其产能潜力尚未得到充分评估.通过深度剖析各类摇摆资源投资强度、空间布局及演进逻辑,可为科学研判能源安全边界提供前瞻依据.研究表明,到2030年,我国摇摆资源总产能有望突破950亿立方米,这一结构性变量将对国家能源战略规划及产业竞争格局产生深远影响.
China may sustain its well supplied natural gas market in the coming years,as the production growth outpaces its demand.Under the background of slowing consumption growth,domestic reserves and production have achieved remarkable results.The important supply sources could include coal-bed methane,coal-to-gas,coke oven gas and bio-gas.They will play as flexible resources for peak shaving and supply regulation in gas markets and act as the key"swing factors"with significant implications for policy making and corporate planning.Since those resources are rarely studied thoroughly,their capacity has long been underestimated.By studying investment tensity,regional operations and history,this paper indicates that such swing supply could reach 95 bcm by 2030,with long-lasting impact for China's energy strategy and industry landscape.The findings could help assess the boundaries of the energy security from a marginal perspective.
王险峰;杨永闯;邢依蒙;付俊涛
中国石油化工股份有限公司天然气分公司,北京 100029中国石油化工股份有限公司天然气分公司,北京 100029中国石油化工股份有限公司天然气分公司,北京 100029中国石油化工股份有限公司天然气分公司,北京 100029
管理科学
天然气煤制气煤层气焦炉煤气液化工厂摇摆资源产能展望能源安全
natural gascoal-to-gascoalbed methanecoke oven gasliquefaction plantswing supplycapacity outlookenergy security
《石油石化绿色低碳》 2026 (1)
16-22,33,8
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