不同党参响应气候变化的地理分布及生态位动态研究OA

Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of suitable habitats and the response mechanisms to climate change of three Codonopsis species—C.pilosula,C.pilosula var.modesta,and C.tangshen—providing a scientific basis for the conservation and sustainable utilization of Codonopsis resources.Methods Based on the MaxEnt modeling framework,we utilized the ENMeval package to optimize feature combinations(FC)and regularization multipliers(RM).Current climate data were integrated with multi-scenario future climate projections,after which habitat suitability was classified using the natural breaks method.Spatial response strategies were subsequently analyzed via a centroid shift model.The study integrated 104 ecological factors to systematically elucidate species-specific adaptation mechanisms.Results Current suitable habitats exhibited significant interspecific divergence,with C.pilosula var.Modesta having the broadest distribution(total suitable area:181.17×104 km2),followed by C.pilosula(180.77×104 km2),and C.tangshen the narrowest(137.52×104 km2).Precipitation is the dominant environmental factor influencing the geographical distribution of the three Codonopsis species,with July wind speed,annual temperature range,and seasonal precipitation variation serving as common adaptive bases across species.However,species-specific factors(such as November vapor pressure for C.pilosula,elevation for C.pilosula var.modesta,and December minimum temperature for C.tangshen)drive niche differentiation.Under future climate scenarios,C.pilosula and C.pilosula var.modesta showed habitat expansion(C.pilosula southwestward to Ningxia-Guizhou-Yunnan-Gansu-Shanxi,C.pilosula var.modesta eastward to Hubei-Chongqing),whereas C.tangshen faced a contradictory"westward contraction-eastward expansion"pattern.Centroid migration indicated C.tangshen exhibited the most pronounced westward shift under low-emission scenarios(412.37 km),while C.pilosula var.modesta displayed the largest displacement under high-emission scenarios(346.01 km).Conclusion The three original species of Codonopsis Radix exhibited asynchronous adaptation strategies to climate change,with C.tangshen at higher risk of habitat fragmentation,necessitating prioritized ex situ conservation and ecological corridor construction.The expansion trends of C.pilosula and C.pilosula var.modesta provide spatial guidance for resource utilization.This study offers methodological references and key scientific support for predicting suitable habitats and formulating conservation strategies for medicinal plants.