家庭结构与消费风险分散:独生和非独生夫妻家庭比较OACHSSCD

Against the backdrop of declining fertility and demographic transition,the ability and channels for families to mitigate income risk and smooth consumption may undergo systematic changes.Using the data of the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2010 to 2018,this paper constructs an unbalanced panel and applies the quasi-maximum likelihood estimation(QMLE)approach based on the BPP model to estimate differences in consumption insurance between one-child couples and non-one-child couples.The results show that households without siblings are more consumption secured.A 10%of permanent income shock changes consumption by 2.86%for households without siblings,compared to a 4.03%change for households with siblings.Temporary income shocks have a smaller impact on household consumption.In rural area,households without siblings are least consumption insured.In western region,households are less consumption insured than eastern and middle region.This paper examines the role of social capital and household assets in consumption smoothing and finds that households with siblings have more social capital,while social capital has no effect on consumption insurance according to our results.Households without siblings have more assets and assets have a significantly positive effect on consumption insurance.So,households without siblings have a stronger consumption insurance effect compared to households with siblings.Thus,it is particularly important to improve formal institutional arrangement such as the insurance system and social security system and enhance their operational efficiency to ensure families'ability to resist income risks.At the same time,measures such as continuously increasing the income levels and alleviating credit constraints in low-income regions and families should be implemented to enhance the ability to accumulate wealth and resilience in the face of shocks.