现金补贴的预期生育效果估计OACHSSCD

The lack of clear policy design basis has greatly restricted the development process of cash subsidy policies.To address the questions of"how much subsidy should be provided and what way is more effective",this study estimates the discrete choice rates of a large number of schemes based on the point process and measure theory within the framework of choice experiments,and further derives the relationship between subsidy schemes and the parity progression ratio fertility rate through parity-specific analysis.The analysis of the data from the"2022 Xiamen Active Fertility Policy Demand Survey"reveals that:1)One-child families are the most responsive to subsidy policy with the upper limit of the choice rate reaching 99.5%.However,the maximum choice rate for two-child subsidy schemes is 36.5%,and that for three-child and above subsidy schemes is only 4.7%.Notably,all these schemes only take effect when the subsidy amount exceeds the minimum threshold.2)The total subsidy amount does not have a decisive impact on the scheme choice rate.Insteadly,a higher choice rate can only be achieved through careful selection of the combination of various subsidies.3)There are differences in the demand for subsidy schemes among families by parity.For one-child subsidy schemes,there are two optimal models:a low-level model where the optimal scheme is a one-time subsidy and a childcare subsidy as well as a high-level model where the optimal scheme is a one-time subsidy plus a child-rearing subsidy.The optimal method for two-child subsidies is full rearing subsidies,while the optimal subsidy scheme for three-child and above is a combination of three types of subsidies.4)The expected scheme choice rate can serve as a basis for policy design.Formulating the subsidy level and method for each parity in accordance with the scheme choice rate corresponding to the parity progression ratio is more in line with the preferences of family policies.