婚姻挤压对中国两性初婚年龄的影响OACHSSCD

The data from the seventh national census reveals a significant and accelerating trend of delayed first marriage age among both men and women in China,which has attracted widespread attention and has been largely explained with economic and social structural changes.This study proposes the marriage squeeze hypothesis,arguing that marriage squeeze caused by gender imbalance in the marriage market might be one of the key factors contributing to the accelerated delay in the age at first marriage over the past decade.Based on the three-element theory of marriage,this research adopts an analytical framework incorporating availability,desirability and feasibility of marriage to explain the mechanism by which marriage squeeze influences the marriage behavior of men and women.The analysis reveals that between 1990 and 2020,there was a certain correlation between the matching sex ratio and the mean age at first marriage.The increase in the degree of marriage squeeze is significantly related to the delay in the age at first marriage.Marriage squeeze leads to delayed first marriage for both genders,but the operating paths differ.As the"surplus side",men are primarily affected by the direct effect of reduced availability of potential spouses and the indirect effect of decreased marital feasibility,thereby delaying their first marriage,which is an objective mismatch effect.In contrast,as the"scarce side",women's delayed first marriage mainly stems from decreased marital desirability,that is,a more cautious evaluation of potential spouses and marital value.Especially for highly-educated women,under the pressure of marriage squeeze,they tend to postpone first marriage to seek spouses with higher compatibility or better marital conditions,reflecting the subjective willingness effect.Overall,marriage squeeze affects first marriage behavior through gender-specific mechanisms.This mechanism not only provides a new theoretical perspective for explaining the accelerated postponement of the age at first marriage in China over the past decade but also offers empirical evidence for the formulation of marriage-related policies.