人工智能、人口老龄化与经济增长OACHSSCD

Global population aging and declining birth rates are impacting economic growth through multiple channels.It remains unclear whether,how,and under what conditions artificial intelligence(AI)can effectively counteract the economic inhibitory effects of aging.This paper constructs an integrated analytical framework incorporating"technology compensation-institutional adaptation-cultural accommodation"mechanisms and employs a panel data of 28 countries from 2000 to 2022 to conduct empirical tests using the system GMM and panel threshold models for empirical testing.The findings reveal that:Firstly,AI exerts a significant nonlinear compensation effect on aging,with a critical threshold of approximately 7.2%in penetration rate.When AI penetration rate is below this threshold,the inhibitory effect of aging on economic growth dominates.However,once the penetration rate exceeds this threshold,the technological compensation effect takes the lead in the economic growth logic,turning the net effect of aging on economic growth from negative to positive.Secondly,institutional and cultural factors systematically moderate the effectiveness of technological compensation.The higher policy responsiveness and stronger cultural inclusiveness,the greater the compensatory effect of AI technology on the inhibitory effect of aging,which can increase the compensation elasticity by approximately 30%to 50%.Thirdly,the technological compensation effect shows significant heterogeneity.Government-led economies,due to their stronger policy execution and social consensus,have a significantly stronger compensation effect than welfare-dependent economies.Furthermore,strong compensation is primarily achieved through a"skill-augmenting"path in AI-highly-related industries,while partial compensation occurs through a"labor-substituting"path in automated manufacturing.This study provides a theoretical basis and precise policy pathway for developing countries to address demographic transition through"technology-institution-culture"synergistic governance.