基于MaxEnt模型的小粒种咖啡广西适宜性区划和种植空间潜力预测OA

The study on the ecological suitability regionalization for Coffea arabica in Guangxi is of great reference significance for accurate and effective utilization of ecological and environmental resources,guiding scientific site se-lection for planting and rational production layout planning.The MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used for the modeling of 58 distribution points of C.arabica in Guangxi and 15 environmental factors,and for the prediction of the ecological suitability regionalization and spatial potential prediction in current and future climate scenario.The model's prediction results had high consistency and reliability,with the AUC of 0.937,the Kappa coefficient of 61.6％,and TSS of 0.738.Climatic limiting factors(coefficient of variation of precipitation seasonality,isothermality,precipitation of coldest quarter,mean temperature of coldest quarter,min temperature of coldest month)played a decisive role in the ecological suitability regionalization of C.arabica in Guangxi.The southwest of Guangxi was the core concentration area for highly suitable area,and important distribution area for moderately and lowly suitable area in current.The top five of total suitable areas,in descending order,were Baise(46.20％),Chongzuo(21.97％),Fangchenggang(8.26％),Nanning(7.33％)and Yulin(6.46％)in the prefecture-level scale.The top five of highly suitable areas,in descending order,were Jingxi(149.58 km2),Xilin(109.77 km2),Napo(62.94 km2),Debao(50.78 km2)and Shangsi(47.31 km2)in the county scale.In the future climate scenario,the total suitable area showed an increasing trend,particularly suitable habitat expanding gradually from the southwest dominant suitable area toward the northeast potential area,with the core distribution areas shifting from the southwest area of Guangxi(Baise,Chongzuo,Fangchenggang and other regions)to-ward the northeast(Nanning area together with the central and eastern area of Guangxi).