基于CMIP6的珠江流域旱涝急转事件演变特征及社会经济暴露度预估OA
Evolution characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation events and socio-economic exposure estimation in the Pearl River basin,China
旱涝急转作为一种极端复合事件,对自然与社会系统带来的影响远大于单一的干旱或洪涝事件.基于CMIP6数据与人口、GDP数据预估了3种SSP情景下珠江流域2021-2100年旱涝急转事件演变趋势及人口、GDP暴露度变化.结果表明:1962-2020年旱涝急转事件呈现不显著上升趋势;未来涝转旱发生频次显著高于旱转涝;旱转涝随排放情景升高发生频次减少,涝转旱在高排放情景下发生频次最高;旱转涝除SSP1-2.6远期外,其余情景与时期较基准期频率、强度均呈下降趋势;涝转旱在3种情景下较基准期频率均呈近期降低、远期上升趋势.未来在3种情景下,珠江流域旱转涝人口暴露度在时间上呈现近期分化、远期共增趋势,GDP暴露度近期远期均呈上升趋势,空间上两类暴露度上升的区域主要集中在珠三角地区;涝转旱人口暴露度呈近期降低、远期上升趋势,GDP暴露度呈近期分化、远期共增趋势,空间上两类暴露度上升的区域均从流域东部逐渐向中西部蔓延.
Drought-flood abrupt alternation(DFAA),as an extreme compound event,exerts far greater impacts on natural and social systems than individual drought or flood events.Based on CMIP6 data,population data,and GDP data,this study projected the evolutionary trends of DFAA and changes in population and GDP exposure in the Pearl River basin from 2021 to 2100 under three shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs).The results are as follows.The frequency of DFAA events exhibited a non-significant upward trend from 1962 to 2020.In the future,the frequency of flood-to-drought alternation is significantly higher than that of drought-to-flood alternation.The frequency of drought-to-flood alternation decreases with the increase in emissions,while that of flood-to-drought alternation is the highest under high-emission scenarios.Except for the long-term period(2061-2100)under SSP 1-2.6,both the frequency and intensity of drought-to-flood alternation show a decreasing trend compared to the baseline period.In the near-term period(2021-2060),the frequency of flood-to-drought alternation under the three SSPs is lower than that in the baseline period,while it rises in the long-term period.Under three SSPs,the population exposure to drought-to-flood alternation in the Pearl River basin presents a temporal trend of"differentiation in the near-term period and common increase in the long-term period",while GDP exposure shows an overall upward trend.Spatially,regions with increasing exposure for both population and GDP are mainly concentrated in the Pearl River Delta region.The population exposure to flood-to-drought alternation decreases in the near-term period compared to the baseline period but increases in the long-term period.The GDP exposure to flood-to-drought alternation also follows a trend of"differentiation in the near-term period and common increase in the long-term period".Spatially,regions with increasing exposure for both population and GDP spread from the eastern part of the basin to the central and western parts.
秦年秀;李雅姝;汪军能;龚馨怡;杨心怡;姜彤
南宁师范大学地理科学与规划学院,南宁 530001||北部湾环境演变与资源利用教育部重点实验室,南宁 530001南宁师范大学地理科学与规划学院,南宁 530001南宁师范大学地理科学与规划学院,南宁 530001||北部湾环境演变与资源利用教育部重点实验室,南宁 530001南宁师范大学地理科学与规划学院,南宁 530001南宁师范大学地理科学与规划学院,南宁 530001南京信息工程大学地理科学学院/灾害风险管理研究院,南京 210044
珠江流域CMIP6共享社会经济路径(SSP)旱涝急转暴露度
Pearl River basinCMIP6Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)Drought-flood abrupt alternation(DFAA)Exposure
《气候变化研究进展》 2026 (1)
57-69,13
广西重点研发计划项目(桂科AB22080060)广西自然科学基金项目(2022GXNSFAA035611)
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