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赣江流域植被恢复对水文干旱缓解量化分析OA

Quantitative analysis of effect of vegetation restoration on hydrological drought mitigation in Ganjiang River Basin

中文摘要英文摘要

基于赣江流域气象水文、土地利用/覆被、地理信息等历史数据,综合运用SWAT模型和情景分析方法,厘清气象水文干旱与土地利用/覆被的协同演变规律,量化植被恢复对水文干旱缓解的贡献率.赣江流域森林和农田面积占比分别为68.8%和26.9%,森林为流域主导植被类型,自1990年起流域植被恢复成效显著,归一化植被指数(NDVI)呈显著上升趋势;流域气象干旱整体平稳,仅在后汛期及9个月以上长历时尺度呈显著湿化趋势;水文干旱整体缓解,汛期缓解效应尤为显著,主汛期向后汛期旱涝急转频次增加且以旱转涝为主.SWAT模型模拟效果良好,率定期与验证期纳什效率系数NSE均大于0.63,决定系数R2均大于0.65.情景分析表明,NDVI值提升可驱动主—后汛期径流分布更均匀,是季节性水文干旱缓解的主导因素.

Vegetation restoration measures are key interventions for regulating hydrological drought resilience.Understanding its regulatory mechanism is regarded as a theoretical prerequisite for planning such measures.Based on long-term meteoro-logical-hydrological records,land use/land cover data,and geospatial information in Ganjiang River Basin,this study system-atically applied the SWAT model and scenario analysis to clarify the co-evolution patterns of meteorological and hydrological droughts with LUCC change,followed by quantifying the contribution of vegetation restoration to hydrological drought mitiga-tion.The analysis indicates that the basin was dominated by forest and cropland,accounting for 68.8% and 26.9% of the area,respectively.Vegetation restoration has been pronounced,indicated by a significant increase in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI).The overall meteorological drought in the basin remained stable,with a significant wetting trend only observed in the post-flood season and over long-term scales of more than 9 months.In contrast,hydrological drought has been generally alleviated,with the mitigation effect being particularly pronounced during the flood season.Notably,the fre-quency of abrupt drought-flood alternation from the main flood season to the post-flood season has increased,predominantly characterized by transitions from drought to flood.The SWAT model exhibits satisfactory simulation performance:the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficients and coefficients of determination during the calibration and validation periods are greater than 0.63 and 0.65,respectively.Scenario analysis reveals that the increase in NDVI values promotes more uniform runoff distribution from the main flood season to the post-flood season,which constitutes the primary driver behind the alleviation of seasonal hydrological drought.

王永文;张翔;杨筱筱;黄宝怡;汤繁;白桦

江西水利电力大学 水利工程学院,江西南昌 330099江西水利电力大学 水利工程学院,江西南昌 330099江西省水文监测中心,江西南昌 330038江西水利电力大学 水利工程学院,江西南昌 330099江西水利电力大学 水利工程学院,江西南昌 330099江西水利电力大学 水利工程学院,江西南昌 330099

天文与地球科学

植被恢复水文干旱SWAT模型

vegetation restorationhydrological droughtSWAT model

《江西水利电力大学学报》 2026 (1)

23-30,8

江西省自然科学基金项目(20252BAC240135)江西省水利厅科技项目(202527ZDKT15,202426ZDKT23)

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