供热热负荷预测方法研究综述OA
Review of Research on Heating Load Prediction Methods
分析热负荷特性、影响因素,介绍热负荷预测基本步骤.对热负荷预测方法、研究热点进行总结,指出热负荷预测面临的挑战.热负荷预测方法各有优缺点,在进行预测时需充分考虑热负荷与影响因素间的非线性关系.通过提高数据质量、合理选取输入变量以及不同模型组合,提高模型精度和稳定性.数据缺失、不准确、格式不统一等问题限制了预测模型的预测能力.算法改进可提升预测模型精度,但也带来计算复杂度的增加.不同预测方法适配不同工程,跨系统模型复用性差,难以形成统一的标准解决方案.
The characteristics and influencing factors of heat load are analyzed,the basic steps of heat load pre-diction are introduced.The heat load prediction meth-ods and research hotspots are summarized,and the challenges faced by the heat load prediction are pointed out.The heat load prediction methods have their own advantages and disadvantages,and the non-linear relationship between heat load and influencing factors should be fully considered in forecasting.By im-proving data quality,rationally selecting input vari-ables,and combining different models,the accuracy and stability of models can be improved.Problems such as missing data,inaccuracy,and inconsistent for-matting limit the predictive ability of predictive mod-els.Algorithm improvements can improve the accuracy of predictive models,but it also increases the computa-tional complexity.Different prediction methods are suitable for different projects,and the reusability of cross-system models is poor,which makes it difficult to form a unified standard solution.
安文含;刘吉营;周世玉;田彦法
山东建筑大学热能工程学院,山东 济南 250101山东建筑大学热能工程学院,山东 济南 250101山东建筑大学热能工程学院,山东 济南 250101山东华科规划建筑设计有限公司,山东 聊城 252026
建筑与水利
热负荷预测影响因素多模型组合
heat load predictioninfluencing factorsmulti-model combination
《煤气与热力》 2026 (3)
17-24,8
山东省高等学校青创人才引育计划创新团队项目(鲁教科函[2021]51号)
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