玉米秸秆资源预测及其用于村镇供热的潜力分析OA

To accurately predict the amount of corn stover resources in Yulin City over the next decade and evaluate its heating potential,the text first uses the total corn production and sowing area of various counties in Yulin City,Shaanxi Province from 2012-2023 as the original data series to establish a multivariate linear regression prediction model with dum-my variables.It predicts the future ten years' corn production for this region under three scenario assumptions.Next,it cal-culates and evaluates the amount of corn straw resources and its biomass heating potential in the region using the grass-to-grain ratio method and related coefficients.Finally,it calculates the annual total heat consumption of towns and villages in Yulin City using the area heat index method and estimates the total energy savings for heating using corn straw.The results show that the multivariate linear regression prediction model with dummy variables can predict the medium-to long-term corn production in this region.The predicted results indicate that the corn production and corn straw resource quantity in Yulin City will increase annually from 2024-2033.Under the three scenario assumptions,the theoretical corn straw re-source quantity increases from 2.2788～2.2981 million tons to 2.3234～2.5443 million tons,which can replace standard coal quantities from 526,800～531,300 tons of standard coal to 537100～588200 tons of standard coal,providing an av-erage annual heat supply of 1.56 × 107～1.64 × 107 GJ.The total annual heat consumption of various counties in Yulin City is 4.15 × 107 GJ,and the total coal consumption is 1.4168 million tons of standard coal.According to the predicted corn straw resource data,after 2030,using corn straw for heating in winter in towns and villages of various counties in Yu-lin City will meet about one-quarter of the winter heating energy needs of the entire Yulin region,significantly saving coal consumption,with considerable heating potential.