基于水资源刚性约束下的天山北坡经济带水资源承载力分析OA

The Northern Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan(NSEBT)is one of the core regions of the Silk Road Economic Belt,and its socio-economic development has long been limited by the shortage of water resources.Water resources carrying capacity is an important indicator of economic and social development space,and its quantitative research is of great significance to the sustainable development of regional socio-economic.This study proposes a method for evaluating water resources carrying capacity using water availability as a rigid constraint.This method can quantify the carrying capacity scales for population,economy,and cropland,as well as the overall carrying capacity status(severely overloaded,overloaded,critical,or not overloaded).Using this method,we evaluated the water resources carrying capacity of the NSEBT from 1991 to 2020.Our results indicate that the sizes of population,economy,and cropland that can be supported by water resources all exhibited an increasing trend from 1991 to 2020.Specifically,during the three assessment periods(1991-2000,2001-2010,2011-2020),the population carrying capacities are 7.06,8.01 and 8.59 million respectively,the GDP carrying capacities are 46.9,227.4 and 612.5 billion yuan,respectively,and the cropland carrying capacities are 19 251,24 393 and 30 059 km2,respectively.Despite these increases,the whole region remained in an overloaded status,with significant variation across administrative regions.During 2011-2020,,Changji,Tacheng,and Kuitun were classified as severely overloaded status.Inter-decadal changes show that the water resources carrying state worsened in Changji,Tacheng,Bozhou and Kuitun,while it improved in Urumqi,Shihezi,Wujiaqu and Hami.The carrying state of the whole region shifted from a critical state in the 1990s and 2000s to an overloaded state in the 2010s.Given the severe situation of water resources carrying capacity in the NSEBT,we proposed a range of initiatives to enhance the carrying capacity of water resources,focusing on both increasing water supply and reducing water demand.