冷昼日数对东北三省水稻气象产量的影响OA
Cool Days Effect on Rice Meteorological Yield in the Three Provinces of Northeast China
以东北水稻为研究对象,分析 1980-2021 年东北三省冷昼日数对水稻产量的影响,以期为极端低温事件对水稻产量影响评估提供参考.结果表明:1980-2021 年东北三省水稻移栽-返青、返青-孕穗、孕穗-乳熟和乳熟-成熟 4 个生育阶段冷昼日数均呈减少趋势,2009年为冷昼日数突变年,从 2016 年开始减少趋势达显著水平.水稻田间生长季冷昼日数对水稻相对气象产量呈极显著负效应,仅移栽-返青期为正效应.水稻孕穗-乳熟阶段冷昼日数对相对气象产量影响贡献率最大,达 43%,即孕穗-乳熟阶段冷昼日数对东北三省水稻产量影响最大.辽宁省冷昼日数对相对气象产量影响的贡献率为东北三省最大,达到 55%.水稻不同生育阶段冷昼日数对水稻相对气象产量存在一定交互影响,且交互影响可能放大移栽-返青阶段冷昼日数的正效应.未来东北三省水稻生产管理中,需重点关注孕穗-乳熟阶段冷昼的发生,并及时采取相应措施降低冷昼影响,保证水稻高产稳产.
As the main rice-producing areas in China,the low temperature is the main meteorological limiting factor for rice production in northeast China.So it's important to study the impact of extreme low temperatures on rice yield in the three provinces of northeast China for local high and stable rice production and national food security.Taking rice of northeast China as the research object,this paper analyzed the influence of cool days on rice yield in the three provinces of northeastern China from 1980 to 2021,in order to solve the problem of unclear impact of extreme low-temperature events on rice yield,and to provide a reference for the impact assessment of such events on rice yield.The results showed that from 1980 to 2021,the cool days in the four growth stages of rice as transplanting-regreening,regreening-booting,booting-heading and heading-ripening in the three provinces of northeast China all showed a decreasing trend.The abrupt changed of cool days occurred in 2009,and the downward trend became statistically significant since 2016.The cool days during the rice field growing season exhibited an extremely significant negative effect on the relative meteorological yield of rice.Among all growth phases,the transplant-regeneration phase showed a positive effect,whereas the others demonstrated negative effects.The cool days during the booting-heading stage had the greatest contribution rate to the relative meteorological yield,reaching 43%,indicating that the cool days in this period had the greatest impact on the rice yield in the three provinces of northeast China.Among the three provinces of northeastern China,Liaoning exhibited the highest contribution rate of cool days to the relative meteorological yield of rice,at 55%,demonstrating that the cool days in Liaoning had the greatest impact on rice yield.The cool days at different growth stages exhibited a certain interactive effects on the relative meteorological yield of rice,and these interactive effects may amplify the positive contribution of cool days during the transplanting-regreening stage.In future rice production management across the three northeastern provinces,particular attention should be paid to the occurrence of cool days during the booting-heading stage,and corresponding measures should be taken in a timely manner to reduce their effects to ensure high and stable rice production.
曲辉辉;朱海霞;李秀芬;巩敬锦;王冬冬;孙丽莉;纪仰慧;王秋京;姜丽霞
黑龙江省气象科学研究所/中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室/五营国家气候观象台,哈尔滨 150030黑龙江省气象科学研究所/中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室/五营国家气候观象台,哈尔滨 150030黑龙江省气象科学研究所/中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室/五营国家气候观象台,哈尔滨 150030黑龙江省气象科学研究所/中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室/五营国家气候观象台,哈尔滨 150030黑龙江省气候中心,哈尔滨 150030五大连池市气象局,五 大连池 164100黑龙江省气象科学研究所/中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室/五营国家气候观象台,哈尔滨 150030黑龙江省气象科学研究所/中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室/五营国家气候观象台,哈尔滨 150030黑龙江省气象科学研究所/中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室/五营国家气候观象台,哈尔滨 150030
东北三省极端低温事件水稻气象产量贡献率
Three provinces of northeast ChinaExtreme low temperature eventRiceMeteorological yieldContribution rate
《中国农业气象》 2026 (3)
418-430,13
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFD2300201)黑龙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LH2022D024)国家自然科学基金项目(31671575)
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