陕西省苹果主产区生产布局时空演变及其影响因素OA

Based on statistical data and field survey data from the main apple producing region of Shaanxi province from 1990 to 2022,this study employed the Gini coefficient,center of gravity migration and spatial autocorrelation analysis to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution of apple production layout.Additionally,boosted regression trees was applied to explore the influencing factors of total production changes,providing a basis for optimizing apple industry configuration and promoting high-quality industry development.The results showed that:(1)during the study period,the development of apples in the main producing region underwent four stages of evolution:boom,adjustment downturn,transition,stabilization and promotion.The trajectory of production center migration showed a pattern of first moving southward and then northward.The Gini coefficient decreased from 0.77 to 0.71,indicating a slight reduction in industrial agglomeration.In 2022,the total production in the northern Weibei accounted for 54.47%of the province's total,maintaining its core production area status.(2)The Moran's I for apple planting area first increased to 0.42 in 2010 and then decreased to 0.29 in 2022,indicating adjustments in the spatial layout structure of apple production.High agglomeration were concentrated in the northern Weibei region and expanding northward,while low agglomeration were distributed in the northern mountainous regions and the western Weibei dry plateau.(3)Changes in total production were influenced by meteorological enviroment,technological progress,market economy,social development,conditions of agricultural production and policy environment.Among these,production per hectare(38.85%),gross output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery(18.36%),comparative income(17.91%),and total agricultural inputs(10.52%)were the top four key factors influencing the extent of change.