首页|期刊导航|新疆大学学报(自然科学版中英文)|基于MEVMD与GA-CNN+LSTM的NOx浓度动态预测模型研究

基于MEVMD与GA-CNN+LSTM的NOx浓度动态预测模型研究OA

A Dynamic Prediction Model for NOx Concentration Based on MEVMD and GA-CNN+LSTM

中文摘要英文摘要

燃煤电厂作为主要NOx排放源,其SCR脱硝系统的高效运行对降低污染物排放至关重要,但在预测NOx过程中,数据的剧烈动态变化会制约模型的预测精度.本文提出一种基于模态能量差和样本熵的变分模态分解(MEVMD)耦合遗传算法(GA)优化卷积神经网络(CNN)和长短期记忆网络(LSTM)的混合预测模型.首先,通过3σ准则修正异常值,再采用皮尔逊相关系数筛选20个关键输入变量,利用最大信息系数(MIC)确定各变量延迟时间,实现特征与目标变量的时序对齐.其次,通过自适应变分模态分解(VMD),精准剥离NOx时序信号中的多频率特征;通过GA优化超参数,实现多子模态的适配性建模.最后,通过VMD逆分解将各子模态融合输出预测结果.实验结果表明,本文所提模型的均方根误差(RMSE)为0.949 2,平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.496 9,决定系数(R2)为0.976 7,优于对比模型.

Coal-fired power plants serve as primary sources of NOx emissions,and the efficient operation of SCR denitrifica-tion systems is crucial for reducing pollutant emissions.However,the highly dynamic changes of data during NOx prediction processes limit the accuracy of predictive models.Therefore,a hybrid prediction framework based on modal energy diffe-rence and sample entropy,which combining variational mode decomposition(MEVMD)with genetic algorithm(GA)to opti-mize convolutional neural network(CNN)and long short-term memory network(LSTM),is proposed.Firstly,abnormal data are corrected using the 3σ criterion;20 key auxiliary variables are selected via Pearson correlation coefficients.The maximum information coefficient(MIC)is employed to determine the delay time for each variable,achieving temporal alignment be-tween features and target variables.Secondly,adaptive variational mode decomposition(VMD)precisely extracts multi-frequency features from NOx time-series signals.Hyperparameters are optimized via GA to achieve adaptive modeling of mul-tiple sub-modes.Finally,prediction results are generated through data reconstruction.Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves RMSE of 0.949 2,MAE of 0.496 9,and R2 of 0.976 7,outperforming comparison models.

张启帆;胡丽娜;曾浩;刘威;杨灿

新疆大学 电气工程学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830017新疆大学 电气工程学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830017新疆大学 电气工程学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830017新疆大学 电气工程学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830017新疆大学 电气工程学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830017

能源科技

NOx预测自适应变分模态分解遗传算法卷积神经网络长短期记忆网络

NOx predictionadaptive variational mode decompositiongenetic algorithmconvolutional neural networklong short-term memory network

《新疆大学学报(自然科学版中英文)》 2026 (2)

169-182,14

新疆维吾尔自治区科技重大专项"燃煤锅炉变负荷运行智能控制技术研究"(2023A01005-1)国家重点研发项目"全烧高碱煤锅炉多目标深度优化变负荷运行控制技术"(2023YFB4102704-01)新疆碳中和能源科学与技术研究"天山英才"培养计划(2022TSYCLJ0001).

10.13568/j.cnki.651094.651316.2025.12.05.0001

评论