中国式现代化历程:从世界大国到世界强国OACHSSCD
The Trajectory of Chinese Modernization:Ascending from a Major Power to the Era of a Global Strong Power
中国式现代化的历史进程不仅重塑了中华民族的发展轨迹,更构成了重塑世界政治经济格局的关键变量.立足"大历史观"与"综合国力"双重维度,将1949年以来中国现代化的演进逻辑划分为经济增长奠基、经济起飞兴国、世界经济大国以及加快建设世界强国四个阶段,构建包含经济实力、人力资本、物质资本、科技实力、信息资源、可再生资源、贸易实力等七大类指标的"国家战略性资源"评价体系,利用购买力平价(2021年国际元)等国际可比口径,对中国从"世界大国"向"世界强国"跃迁的轨迹进行全景式分析与预测. 研究表明,中国已在多维战略资源上实现对先发国家的历史性赶超,正处于从量的积累向质的飞跃转变的关键期.在经济与资本基础层面,中国早已突破"一穷二白"的初始约束,按购买力平价计算的国内生产总值(GDP)总量在2024年已占世界GDP的19.4%,分别达到美国与欧盟的1.31倍和1.38倍,且在2010-2024年对世界经济增长贡献率高达31.8%,不仅彻底改变了全球经济版图,更以占世界28.24%的资本资源比重成为全球第一大投资国,为基础设施现代化提供了雄厚的物质基础.在核心要素禀赋层面,中国人力资本总量(劳动年龄人口与预期受教育年限乘积)长期居世界首位,2024年达127.4亿人年;科技实力实现质变,研发人员全时当量达774.5万人年,自然指数与有效发明专利拥有量均居世界第一.这标志着中国已完成从要素驱动向创新驱动的根本性转型. 在决定未来竞争力的战略新领域,中国展现出明显的领先优势.在信息资源方面,中国构建了全球最大规模的数字基础设施,移动电话与互联网用户规模约为美国的4.6倍,数字经济底座坚实;在绿色能源方面,中国成为全球绿色转型的引领者,可再生能源消费占世界的28.5%,正在重塑全球能源地缘政治格局.同时,中国在货物进出口贸易等方面均稳居世界前列,开放型经济体系日益完善.数据证实,中国已大踏步进入世界经济舞台中心. 基于此,进一步阐释党的十八大以来形成的"1(世界强国)+N(16个专项强国+4个中国)"宏大目标体系,通过对"十五五"及"十六五"期间潜在经济增长率的测算,预计到2035年,中国GDP总量将达到2024年的1.65倍,占世界GDP的比重升至23.8%,研发支出占GDP的比重突破3.0%,届时中国将全面建成综合国力领先的社会主义现代化强国.
The historical trajectory of Chinese modernization has not only reshaped the nation's developmental path but also emerged as a pivotal variable in restructuring the global political and economic landscape.From the dual dimensions of"macro-history"and"comprehensive national power",this paper bifurcates the evolutionary logic of Chinese modernization since 1949 into four distinct eras:the foundation-laying era of economic growth,the prosperity-driven era of economic take-off,the era of becoming a global economic power,and the current era of accelerating toward a world power through sustained growth.It innovatively constructs an evaluation framework of"national strategic resources"comprising nine categories and utilizes international comparable metrics,specifically Purchasing Power Parity(PPP)(2021 International Dollars),to conduct a comprehensive measurement of China's transition from a"Great Power"to a"Global Power". Empirical research demonstrates that China has achieved a historic catch-up across multiple strategic resource dimensions and is currently in a critical phase of transitioning from quantitative accumulation to qualitative leap.Regarding the economic and capital base,China has long overcome its initial"poverty and blankness"constraints.Measured by PPP,China's GDP accounted for 19.4%of the world total in 2024,approximately 1.31 times that of the U.S.and 1.38 times that of the E.U.Between 2010 and 2024,its contribution to global growth reached 31.8%.With capital resources making up 28.24%of the global total,China has become the world's leading investor,providing a robust material foundation for infrastructure modernization.In terms of core factor endowments,China's human capital(the product of the working-age population and expected years of schooling)has led the world for years,reaching 12.74 billion person-years in 2024,approximately 3.5 times that of the U.S.Simultaneously,China's technological strength has undergone a qualitative transformation,with 7.745 million person-years of R&D personnel and the top global ranking in both the Nature Index and high-value patent applications,signaling a fundamental shift from factor-driven to innovation-driven growth. China demonstrates significant leading advantages in strategic emerging sectors that define future competitiveness.In information resources,China has built the world's largest digital infrastructure,with a digital user base exceeding 4.6 times that of the U.S.In green energy,China has emerged as a global leader in the green transition,accounting for 28.5%of global renewable energy consumption(2.09 times the U.S.level),thereby reshaping the global energy geopolitical landscape.Furthermore,China consistently ranks among the world's top in trade in goods.These data substantiate that China has successfully bypassed the"middle-income trap"and moved toward the center of the global economic stage. On this empirical basis,the paper further elucidates the"1+N"target system(consisting of 16 specific powers and 4"Chinas")established since the 18th National Congress of the CPC.Projections based on potential growth rates during the"15th Five-Year Plan"and"16th Five-Year Plan"periods suggest that by 2035,China's GDP will reach 1.65 times its 2024 level,representing 23.8%of the global share,with R&D intensity exceeding 3.0%.By then,China will have comprehensively built itself into a global power with leading comprehensive national strength.This journey not only validates historical visions but also demonstrates that Chinese modernization offers a new path of self-accumulation and peaceful development that benefits all,contributing a unique"China Model"to 21st-century human civilization.
胡鞍钢
清华大学 国情研究院,北京 100084||清华大学 国家治理与全球治理研究院,北京 100084||清华大学 公共管理学院,北京 100084
社会科学
中国式现代化综合国力购买力平价强国目标体系国家战略性资源
Chinese modernizationcomprehensive national powerpurchasing power parityworld power target systemnational strategic resources
《西安交通大学学报(社会科学版)》 2026 (1)
1-8,8
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(24JZD007)清华大学文科"双高"专项项目(53120600125).
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