中国省域可再生能源电力配额分配研究OA

[Purposes]Faced with the urgent demands of the"dual carbon"goals,the electricity industry,as the largest source of carbon emissions in China,is under significant pressure to undergo a low-carbon energy transition.To address this issue,China initiated the implementation of renewable energy electricity quotas in 2018.However,owing to disparities in economic development,industrial structure,and resource endowment among provinces,scientific and reasonable quota allocation is cru-cial.[Methods]Accordingly,in this paper,a renewable energy power quota allocation mechanism was proposed.First,an autoregressive integrated moving average model was employed to forecast the future electricity generation data of each province.Subsequently,the data envelopment analysis method was applied to maximize the overall proportion of renewable energy electricity generation in China,thereby exploring feasible quota allocation strategies.[Results]The results of the empirical study show that with optimal quota allocation,the proportion of renewable energy electricity genera-tion in China could increase from 30.2%to 32%in 2025,while maintaining the total electricity gener-ation level.[Conclusions]In conclusion,the proposed quota allocation method in this study contrib-utes to guiding the implementation of China's renewable energy electricity quota system,thereby sup-porting the achievement of the"dual carbon"goals.