1990-2021年中国0～14岁儿童呼吸道合胞病毒相关下呼吸道感染的疾病负担及预测OA

[Objective]To analyze trends in the disease burden of respiratory syncytial virus-associated lower respiratory tract infections(RSV-LRTIs)among children aged 0 to 14 years old in China from 1990 to 2021,and to predict the disease burden for the period of 2022 to 2030.[Methods]Based on the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database,data on deaths,mortality rates,disability-adjusted life years(DALYs),and DALYs rates for RSV-LRTIs among Chinese children aged 0 to 14 years old were extracted.The disease modelling meta-regression tool—DisMod-MR 2.1 was employed for data modelling to estimate RSV-LRTIs mortality rates and DALYs rates,along with their 95%uncertainty intervals(UI).Joinpoint regression analyses were employed to calculate annual percentage change(APC),average annual percentage change(AAPC),and their 95%confidence intervals(CI),in order to analyze trends in mortality and DALYs rates over time from 1990 to 2021.A Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was employed to predict the disease burden for 2022 to 2030.[Results]From 1990 to 2021,the number of deaths from RSV-LRTIs among children aged 0 to 14 years old in China decreased from 24 738 to 400,with the mortality rate falling from 7.8/100 000 to 0.2/100 000;DALYs decreased from 2 211 155 person-years to 35 958 person-years,with the DALYs rate falling from 694.5/100 000 to 13.8/100 000.The number of deaths,mortality rates,DALYs,and DALYs rates were all higher in boys than in girls.In 2021,the highest number of deaths and DALYs occurred among infants aged 1 to 5 months,while the highest mortality rates and DALYs rates were observed among newborns(<28 days).Joinpoint regression analyses indicated significant reductions in mortality rates and DALYs rates across all three periods:1990‒1993,1993‒2002,2002‒2019,and 2019‒2021(P<0.001),with the most pronounced decline occurring from 2019 to 2021.Prodictions indicate that the age-standardized mortality rate for children aged 0 to 14 years old in China will decrease to 0.000 9/100 000(95%CI:0.000 2‒0.001 7)from 2022 to 2030.[Conclusion]The disease burden of RSV-LRTIs among Chinese children aged 0 to 14 years old declined from 1990 to 2021.The disease burden was higher in boys than in girls.Children under 5 years of age,particularly infants under six months and newborns(<28 days),constituted high-risk groups.Age-standardized mortality rate is predicted to continue decreasing from 2022 to 2030.Sustained efforts to strengthen surveillance and prevention measures for infants and young children remain essential.