三峡水库调蓄与流域来水对2020年以来鄱阳湖极端洪/枯水情的影响OA
Impacts of Three Gorges Reservoir regulation and basin inflow on extreme flood-drought events in Lake Poyang since 2020
受长江来水与流域五河等多因素的共同作用,近年来鄱阳湖极端洪枯事件频发,2020-2024年间出现涝旱急转现象,水文情势不确定性增加.本研究构建了长短期记忆(LSTM)网络和MIKE21水动力模型,通过情景假设,对比分析了三峡水库调蓄与鄱阳湖流域来水对近年来发生的极端洪枯水情的影响.结果显示:(1)三峡水库调蓄一定程度上减少了鄱阳湖洪水发生的风险;流域来水减少导致鄱阳湖水位更低;二者共同作用导致鄱阳湖秋旱加剧.(2)三峡水库调蓄是鄱阳湖丰水期水位变化的主控因素,导致极端洪水下降0.09～0.38 m(占双因素综合影响的58％～81％),而流域来水是枯水期水位降低的主因(降幅为0.13～1.12 m,贡献率达35％～100％).(3)极端洪水情势下,三峡水库调蓄的影响范围波及整个湖区,水位下降区间最大达到1.32～1.38 m,水位降幅自北向南减弱;极端枯水情势下,流域来水主要影响主河道和南部抚河入湖区域,导致水位下降0～3.96 m,水域面积减少516.03 km2.研究成果可为精准识别鄱阳湖极端水文事件的主导因子、优化水位调控策略及提升区域水文风险管理能力提供科学依据.
Under the combined influences of inflow from the Yangtze River and the five in-lake rivers basin,Lake Poyang has ex-perienced frequent extreme flood-drought events in recent years.Rapid transitions between floods and droughts from 2020 to 2024 have heightened uncertainty in its hydrological regimes.In this study,the long short-term memory(LSTM)network and the MIKE21 hydrodynamic model were integrated to examine the impacts of the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)regulation and basin inflow on extreme flood-drought events in Lake Poyang in recent years through scenario-based comparative analyses.The results in-dicate that:(1)TGR regulation moderately mitigated flood risk in Lake Poyang,whereas reduced basin inflow resulted in lower water levels.The combined effect of these factors exacerbated autumn drought conditions.(2)Under combined influences,TGR regulation was the dominant factor controlling water level variations during the flood season,reducing extreme flood levels by 0.09-0.38 m(accounting for 58％-81％of the total combined effect),while reduced basin inflow was the primary driver of water level decline during the dry season(a decrease of 0.13-1.12 m,contributing 35％—100％).(3)During extreme floods,TGR regulation affected the entire lake,lowering water levels by up to 1.32-1.38 m,with effects diminishing from north to south.Dur-ing extreme droughts,reduced basin inflow mainly influenced the main channel and the southern inflow zone of the Fuhe River,re-ducing water levels by 0-3.96 m and decreasing the water surface area by 516.03 km2.These findings provide scientific support for accurately identifying dominant factors in extreme hydrological events,optimizing water level regulation strategies,and impro-ving regional hydrological risk management in Lake Poyang.
聂珉川;姚静;龚磊强;蔡永久;熊丽黎;梁涵玮;王晓龙;谭志强
南京信息工程大学地理科学学院,南京 211800||中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,湖泊与流域水安全全国重点实验室,南京 211135||中国科学院大学南京学院,南京 211135中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,湖泊与流域水安全全国重点实验室,南京 211135||中国科学院大学南京学院,南京 211135江西鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区管理局,南昌 330038中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,湖泊与流域水安全全国重点实验室,南京 211135||中国科学院大学南京学院,南京 211135江西省水文监测中心,南昌 330002南京信息工程大学地理科学学院,南京 211800中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,湖泊与流域水安全全国重点实验室,南京 211135||中国科学院大学南京学院,南京 211135中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,湖泊与流域水安全全国重点实验室,南京 211135||中国科学院大学南京学院,南京 211135
三峡水库流域来水极端洪枯水情水动力模拟长短期记忆网络鄱阳湖
Three Gorges Reservoirbasin inflowextreme flood-drought eventshydrodynamic simulationlong short-term memo-ry networkLake Poyang
《湖泊科学》 2026 (2)
817-830,14
国家自然科学基金项目(U2240219,42171104,32471651)、江西省科技重大专项项目(20252ABF010001)、江西省重点研发计划项目(20223BBG74003)、"赣鄱英才计划"创新领军人才项目"(gpyc20240050)和鄱阳湖流域生态水利技术创新中心开放研究基金(2023skls05)联合资助.
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