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2025年西藏定日Ms6.8地震前地震的固体潮触发检验OA

Test of Earth Tide Triggering before the Xizang Dingri Ms6.8 Earthquake in 2025

中文摘要英文摘要

利用Schuster统计检验方法分析固体潮体应力与2025-01-07西藏定日Ms6.8地震前发生在震中及附近区域中小地震之间的相关性.检验结果用统计参量P值来评价,P值越低,相关性统计显著性越强.从震源地半日潮和半月潮引发潮汐体力调制作用的相位角统计来看,半日潮检验结果P值为1.26%,低于潮汐应力触发阈值,多数地震发生在半日潮极小值附近;半月潮P值未通过显著性检验.进一步分析基于半日潮的P值时间平滑窗和空间平滑窗的统计结果显示,定日Ms6.8地震前P值显著下降,空间低P值区域集中在定日Ms6.8地震震中北侧.表明定日Ms6.8地震前震中及附近区域中小地震的发生与固体潮触发有较明显相关性,对定日Ms6.8地震的发生有一定的前兆意义.

Using Schuster statistical test method,the correlation between tidal body stress and moder-ate and small earthquakes occurred in the epicenter and its vicinity before the Xizang Dingri Ms6.8 earthquake on January 7,2025 is investigated.The test results were evaluated by the statistical pa-rameter P value,and the lower the P value,the stronger the statistical significance of the correlation.According to the phase angle statistics of the tidal force modulation caused by the semidiurnal tide and the semilunar tide in the epicenter,the P value of the semidiurnal tide test result is 1.26%,which is lower than triggering threshold of the tidal stress,and most earthquakes occur near the minimum of the semidiurnal tide;the P value of the semilunar tide does not pass the significance test.Further a-nalysis of the temporal and spatial smoothing windows of the P-value based on the semidiurnal tide shows that the P-value decreases significantly before the Dingri Ms6.8 earthquake,and the low P-val-ue area of the spatial smoothing window is concentrated in the north of the epicenter of the Dingri Ms6.8 earthquake.It is shown that the occurrence of moderate and small earthquakes in the epicenter and its vicinity before the Dingri Ms6.8 earthquake is obviously related to the triggering of solid tide,and these moderate and small earthquakes have certain precursory significance for the occurrence of the Dingri Ms6.8 earthquake.

李霞;徐长朋

山东省地震局,济南,250102山东省地震局,济南,250102

天文与地球科学

定日Ms6.8地震潮汐体应力相位角Schuster检验

Dingri Ms6.8 earthquaketidal stressphase angleSchuster test

《大地测量与地球动力学》 2026 (3)

316-320,5

山东省地震局科研项目(YB2501).

10.14075/j.jgg.2025.05.160

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