我国农村养老保障政策变迁:制度驱动与社会导向OA

China's rural elderly care security system is widely recognized as being characterized by im-balance and fragmentation,making it a persistent challenge.How to optimize the rural elderly care securi-ty framework through policy adjustments and institutional innovation constitutes a critical issue concerning people's livelihood.Based on institutional change theory,and employing co-word analysis and social net-work analysis,this study quantitatively examines 124 national-level policy documents on rural elderly care security issued between 1949 and 2025,aiming to reveal the evolutionary characteristics,internal logic,and driving mechanisms of these policies.The findings indicate that policy evolution has shifted from a primary focus on basic rural old-age insurance toward a more integrated development model en-compassing"old-age insurance-elderly services-senior welfare-elderly assistance".This reflects an emerging policy orientation emphasizing socialization,integration,diversification,and balanced supply-demand across multiple levels.The evolution of rural elderly care security policies exhibits a significant path dependence.Under the imprint of urbanization and industrialization,the absence of governmental re-sponsibility and the inequity between urban and rural elderly care systems have gradually become locked into a pattern characterized by"collective mutual assistance+family-based support",reinforced by traditional eldercare values and entrenched interest barriers.The gap between the rural revitalization strat-egy,the goal of common prosperity,and the persistent urban-rural disparities in elderly care-alongside the lagging development of rural elderly care systems-has compelled the repositioning of governmental re-sponsibility,generating a top-down,coercive force for institutional breakthrough.Meanwhile,bottom-up social endogenous mechanisms-including pressures from changing environments,demand-driven needs in rural elderly care,collaborative engagement of relevant stakeholders,and the pull of external pi-lot demonstrations-serve as dynamic drivers continuously promoting the construction of new institutions and facilitating path departure.Finally,it is proposed that a virtuous cycle of path dependence be estab-lished through the dimensions of"values-objectives-actors-processes",to improve a multi-layered rural elderly care security system with balanced supply and demand.