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融合VMD与FECAM的日前电价预测研究OA

Study on Day-ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Based on the Integration of VMD and FECAM

中文摘要英文摘要

针对电力现货市场中电价波动频繁、非线性强、极端值变化剧烈等挑战,提出一种融合变分模态分解(variational mode decomposition,VMD)和频率增强信道注意力机制(frequency enhanced channel attention mechanism,FECAM)的电价预测模型.首先,通过VMD将原始电价序列分解为多个不同频率成分的固有模态函数,降低数据的非平稳性;其次,利用卷积神经网络(convolutional neural networks,CNN)提取关键特征,并结合双向长短期记忆(bidirectional long short-term memory,BiLSTM)网络,增强模型的长时序处理能力;最后,通过引入FECAM机制,强化模型对关键特征的适应性.实验结果表明:所提模型在澳大利亚电力市场、GEFCom2014及美国PJM市场数据集上的预测性能优于其他深度学习模型,在预测中展现出显著优势,证明了其在复杂电力市场环境中的优越性.

In response to the challenges of frequent fluctuations,strong nonlinearity and drastic extreme value changes in the electricity spot market,this paper proposes an electricity price forecasting model that integrates variational mode decomposition(VMD)and the frequency enhanced channel attention mechanism(FECAM).It firstly decomposes the original electricity price series into multiple intrinsic mode functions with distinct frequency components by using VMD,effectively reducing data non-stationarity.Then,it uses convolutional neural networks(CNN)to extract key features and combines bidirectional long short-term memory network(BiLSTM)to enhance long timing process ability of the model.Finally,by introducing the FECAM,the model's adaptability to critical features is strengthened.The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms traditional regression models and other deep learning approaches on datasets from the Australian electricity market,GEFCom2014,and the U.S.PJM market.The model exhibits superior prediction accuracy and demonstrates its applicability in complex electricity market environments.

王骁;周建新;刘培栋;张卓越

东南大学能源与环境学院,江苏南京 210096东南大学能源与环境学院,江苏南京 210096润电能源科学技术有限公司,河南郑州 450000东南大学能源与环境学院,江苏南京 210096

信息技术与安全科学

电价预测变分模态分解注意力机制深度学习日前电价

electricity price forecastingvariational mode decomposition(VMD)attention mechanismdeep learningday-ahead electricity price

《广东电力》 2026 (2)

29-40,12

华润电力科技项目(K2020-04)

10.3969/j.issn.1007-290X.2026.02.003

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