关中平原城市群内涝灾害韧性评估与影响因素分析OA

Taking 11 prefecture-level cities in the Guanzhong plain urban agglomeration as the research object,we established an urban flood resilience evaluation system from economic,social and infrastructure three dimensions,used game theory combination weighting method,grey relational analysis method,and grey prediction model to evaluate and predict the resilience level of urban flood in the Guanzhong plain urban agglomeration,and proposed improvement strategies.The results indicate that ①the overall level of urban flood resilience in the Guanzhong plain urban agglomeration shows a fluctuating upward trend,significant differences are present in the resilience levels of three dimensions.②The urban flood level displays a spatial pattern with Xi'an as the core,gradually decreasing outward.Among the subsystem resilience,economic and social resilience have great development potential,while infrastructure resilience requires further enhancement.③The main factor influencing urban flood resilience is economic factor at the dimension level,with per capita disposable income showing the highest degree of correlation.④Urban flood resilience in the study area is expected to continue its growth from 2024 to 2028.The core status of cities like Baoji,Xianyang and Yuncheng gradually becomes more prominent.