横断山区水土流失敏感性时空演变与预测研究OA

[Objective]This study aims to investigate the evolutionary patterns of soil erosion sensitivity in the Hengduan Mountains,thereby providing scientific references for formulating differentiated soil and water conservation and control strategies and ensuring ecological security.[Methods]Based on the RUSLE model,the spatiotemporal characteristics of soil erosion sensitivity in the Hengduan Mountains from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed.The CA-Markov model was used to predict soil erosion sensitivity in 2025 and 2030,and the geodetector was used to quantitatively analyze the driving mechanisms behind the changes in soil erosion sensitivity.[Results](1)The overall soil erosion sensitivity in the Hengduan Mountains was mainly insensitive,and the degree of sensitivity showed a trend of alleviation.The area of insensitive regions first decreased and then increased,while that of slightly sensitive regions increased year by year.The areas of moderately,highly,and extremely sensitive regions all showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing.The spatial distribution of soil erosion sensitivity showed notable differences,and the spatial change characteristics were relatively consistent.Overall,it showed a spatial distribution pattern of high sensitivity in the southwest and low sensitivity in the northeast.(2)Vegetation cover and annual average precipitation were the main driving factors affecting soil erosion sensitivity in the Hengduan Mountains.The interaction between factors was primarily manifested as nonlinear enhancement.Compared to the interaction between other factors,the interaction of vegetation cover had a more significant influence.(3)The soil erosion sensitivity in the Hengduan Mountains was projected to show an overall improving trend in the next 5～10 years.The areas of insensitive and slightly sensitive regions were projected to increase,while the areas of moderately,highly,and extremely sensitive regions were projected to decrease.[Conclusion]The soil erosion sensitivity in the Hengduan Mountains is effectively controlled in general,exhibiting a distinct dynamic pattern.The vegetation cover plays a significant role in driving these changes.In the future,it is necessary to implement zonal management based on the degree of soil erosion sensitivity and adopt targeted strategies for soil erosion protection and control.