流域"河-库系统"水文模拟与预报(Ⅱ):科学问题与研究展望OA
Basin hydrological modelling and forecasting of"River-Reservoir System"Ⅱ:Key challenges,scientific issues,and research perspectives
由于"河-库系统"改变了流域下垫面条件,流域产汇流规律与洪水演进特征发生显著变化,传统水文模型方法的适用性面临严峻挑战.本文阐述了变化环境下流域产汇流模型、河道洪水演进和智能洪水预报等研究进展,从空间分异性、产流非线性、演进变异性、演算间断性等方面深入剖析流域"河-库系统"水文模拟与预报的重点、难点,梳理归纳需解决的关键科学技术问题,对未来的研究框架和内容进行了展望,以期对水库(群)精细化水文模拟预报研究提供科学研究与应用的探索与思考.
The"River-Reservoir System"has altered the subsurface conditions of the basin,leading to significant changes in water-vapor circulation regulation,yield and confluence characteristics,and flood routing process within the watershed.As a result,the applicability of traditional hydrological modelling methods is now facing serious chal-lenges.In this paper,the research progress on the mechanism and modelling of catchment yield and confluence,river flood routing,and intelligent flood forecasting under the changing environment is systematically reviewed.From the aspects of spatial anisotropy,time-variable parameters,nonlinearity of yield flow,and blocking of flood routing,we analyze the key points of hydrological simulation and forecasting in the"River-Reservoir System"and summarize the key scientific and technological problems to be solved.Finally,the framework and content of future research are pros-pected,with the aim of providing a reference for the research and development of refined hydrological simulation and forecasting for reservoirs(groups).
程海云;夏军;张俊;陈瑜彬;徐雨妮;崔震
长江水利委员会水文局,湖北 武汉 430010武汉大学 水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430072长江水利委员会水文局,湖北 武汉 430010||长江水利委员会水旱灾害防御创新团队,湖北 武汉 430010长江水利委员会水文局,湖北 武汉 430010||流域水模拟与预报调度智能技术创新中心,湖北 武汉 430010长江水利委员会水文局,湖北 武汉 430010||流域水模拟与预报调度智能技术创新中心,湖北 武汉 430010郑州大学 水利与交通学院,河南 郑州 450001
天文与地球科学
"河-库系统"产汇流模型河道洪水演进智能洪水预报
river-reservoir systemyield-confluence modellingriver flood routingintelligent flood forecasting
《水利学报》 2026 (2)
169-180,12
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200301)国家自然科学基金项目(U2340213)
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