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新时代中国水电系统调度发展分析及技术展望OA

Development analysis and technological prospect for China's hydropower system dispatching in the new era

中文摘要英文摘要

"新电改""双碳""人工智能+"等国家战略相继实施,推动我国亿千瓦级水电系统迈入新的时代.水电调度作为指导水电系统运行的"大脑",亟需适应新时代更加复杂的环境和要求,以支撑世界最大规模水电系统高效运行.本文探讨了中国水电系统调度正在或将来可能的发展趋势:一是从集中调度向市场化运行转变,以实现绿色优质水电更高效配置;二是从水电独立调度向水电与新能源互补调度转变,以更好地发挥水电灵活调节作用;三是从人机建模优化调度向水电智能推理调度转变,使大规模水电系统复杂调度建模计算更简单便捷.同时,剖析了中国水电系统调度发展面临的关键技术挑战,概述了整体研究进展,期望为行业领域人员构建新时代水电调度技术体系提供参考.

The successive implementation of national strategies such as"New Electricity Reform","Dual Carbon Goals",and"AI+"has propelled China's hundred-gigawatt-scale hydropower system into a new era.As the"brain"guiding the operation of hydropower systems,hydropower dispatching urgently needs to adapt to the more complex environment and requirements of this new era to support the efficient operation of the world's largest hydropower system.This paper discusses the ongoing and potential future development trends of hydropower system dispatching in China.The first is a shift from centralized dispatching to market-oriented operation to achieve more efficient alloca-tion of high-quality green hydropower.The second is a transition from independent hydropower dispatching to comple-mentary dispatching of hydropower and new energy sources,to better leverage the flexible regulation role of hydro-power.The third is a move from human-computer modeling for optimized dispatching toward intelligent reasoning-based dispatching,making complex modeling and computation for large-scale hydropower systems simpler and more efficient.Meanwhile,the paper analyzes the key technological challenges facing the development of hydropower dis-patching in China,summarizes research progress and prospects,and aims to provide references for professionals in the field to build a new-era hydropower dispatching technological system.

申建建

大连理工大学,辽宁 大连 116024

能源科技

水电系统水电调度水电市场化水电与新能源互补水电智能推理调度

hydropower systemhydropower dispatchinghydropower marketizationcomplementary operations of hydropower and new energiesintelligent reasoning-based hydropower dispatching

《水利学报》 2026 (1)

153-167,15

国家自然科学基金项目(U23A20667)

10.3724/j.slxb.20250597

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