基于深度学习的机场风长时序预测OA
Long-term Wind Prediction at Airports Based on Deep Learning
针对传统风场预测方法中存在的精度不足和时效性差等问题,引入了Informer模型,提高了对福建省厦门高崎国际机场长时间序列气象数据的预测准确度.相较于传统模型,Informer模型在处理风场时间序列数据中的概率稀疏自注意力机制和自注意力蒸馏技术,能够高效捕捉数据中的长期依赖关系和复杂特征.在60 min预测以及季节性变化中,Informer模型表现出了强大的稳健性和高效性.此外,还对比了不同风场变化对模型预测的影响,发现Informer模型在不同风场条件下均能更好地保持稳定预测性能,进一步验证了其广泛适用性和鲁棒性.通过提高预测精度和时效性,本研究不仅为航空气象服务提供了更精准的风速和风向预测,有助于保障航空器飞行安全、优化航班调度及提升能源利用效率,同时还为短期天气预报等领域带来了积极影响,提供了新的研究思路和解决方案,对于推动深度学习在气象预测中的应用具有重要意义.
To address the issues of insufficient accuracy and poor timeliness in traditional wind field prediction methods,this study introduced the Informer model to enhance the forecast accuracy of the long-term meteorological data at Xiamen Gaoqi International Airport.The paper details the unique advantages of the Informer model in handling wind field time series data,including its probabilistic sparse self-attention mechanism and self-attention distillation technology.These features enable the model to efficiently capture long-term dependencies and complex characteristics within the data.Compared with traditional Artificial Neural Networks(ANNs)and Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)models,the Informer model demonstrates higher prediction accuracy across different time scales.In the 60-minute predictions and seasonal variations,the Informer model demonstrated high robustness and efficiency.Additionally,a comparison of the effects of different wind field variations on the model's wind field predictions revealed that the Informer model consistently maintained stable predictive performance under varying wind field conditions,further validating its broad applicability and robustness.By enhancing prediction accuracy and timeliness,this research not only provides more accurate wind speed and direction forecasts for aviation meteorological services,aiding in flight safety,optimizing flight scheduling,and improving energy efficiency,but also has a positive impact on short-term weather forecasting and offers new research ideas and solutions.It has significant implications for advancing the application of deep learning in meteorological forecasting.
石雨卉;孙凯;徐颖;郭炜峻
中国民用航空厦门空中交通管理站,福建 厦门 361006||华东空管局空管数据分析及应用实验室,福建 厦门 361006中国民用航空厦门空中交通管理站,福建 厦门 361006中国民用航空厦门空中交通管理站,福建 厦门 361006中国民用航空厦门空中交通管理站,福建 厦门 361006
天文与地球科学
深度学习风场预测长时间序列Informer模型航空气象
deep learningwind field predictionlong-term sequencesInformer modelaviation meteorology
《热带气象学报》 2026 (1)
122-131,10
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