首页|期刊导航|热带气象学报|基于卫星资料的西太平洋台风强度监测机器学习方法对比研究

基于卫星资料的西太平洋台风强度监测机器学习方法对比研究OA

Comparative Study of Machine Learning Methods for Typhoon Intensity Monitoring in the Western Pacific Based on Satellite Data

中文摘要英文摘要

台风是严重影响沿海地区的自然灾害,准确监测其强度对于防灾减灾具有重要意义.基于卫星观测结合深度学习技术已成为台风强度监测的新一代方法,然而不同深度学习方法的准确度并不明确.因此,本文评估了六种基于深度学习的卷积神经网络模型在西太平洋台风强度监测中的表现.本研究利用2015-2024年Himawari-8/9卫星云产品数据和中国气象局台风最佳路径数据,对比分析了LeNet-5、AlexNet、DenseNet-121、VGG-16、ResNet-50以及GoogleNet-InceptionV3等模型的计算效果.本文不仅探讨了这些模型在不同强度台风场景下的适用性和性能表现,还对模型的特征提取步骤进行可视化,旨在更清晰地说明模型之间的差异以及模型工作原理.结果表明,LeNet-5与AlexNet在极弱(TD)和极强(SuperTY)级别下偏差最大;DenseNet-121在各强度下Bias分布较为平均;ResNet-50、VGG-16和GoogleNet-InceptionV3则在中等强度范围(TS、STS、TY、STY)内表现较为稳定.总体来看,GoogleNet-InceptionV3模型估计准确度最高(R2=0.89),但ResNet-50运行速度更快(R2=0.87).

Typhoons are natural disasters that severely impact coastal areas,and accurately monitoring their intensity is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation.Combining satellite observations with deep learning technology has become a pomising new method for typhoon intensity monitoring.However,the accuracy of different deep learning methods remains unclear.This study evaluates the performance of six convolutional neural network models based on deep learning in monitoring typhoon intensity in the Western Pacific.Using Himawari-8/9 satellite cloud product data and the China Meteorological Administration's best track data from 2015 to 2024,we analyzed the computational effectiveness of LeNet-5,AlexNet,DenseNet-121,VGG-16,ResNet-50,and GoogleNet-InceptionV3 models.This study not only explores the applicability and performance of these models in different scenarios but also visualizes the feature extraction steps of the models to clarify the differences between them and their working principles.LeNet-5 and AlexNet show the largest biases in extremely weak(TD)and extremely strong(SuperTY)categories;DenseNet-121 maintains relatively uniform bias distribution across all intensity levels;ResNet-50,VGG-16,and GoogleNet-InceptionV3 demonstrate stable performance in medium intensity ranges(TS,STS,TY,STY).Overall,the GoogleNet-InceptionV3 model achieves the highest accuracy with an R² of 0.89,while ResNet-50,with an R²of 0.87,offers faster computational speed.

邓子怡;李煜斌;王泓;贾未雨;高志球

南京信息工程大学大气物理学院,江苏 南京 210044南京信息工程大学大气物理学院,江苏 南京 210044南京信息工程大学大气物理学院,江苏 南京 210044南京信息工程大学大气物理学院,江苏 南京 210044南京信息工程大学大气物理学院,江苏 南京 210044

天文与地球科学

热带气旋卷积神经网络强度监测卫星观测深度学习

tropical cycloneconvolutional neural networkintensity monitoringsatellite observationdeep learning

《热带气象学报》 2026 (1)

105-121,17

国家自然科学基金面上项目(42075072)资助

10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2026.009

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