基于机器学习组合模型的引水工程高边坡位移预测研究OA
Displacement prediction of high slopes in water diversion projects based on ensemble machine learning models
为了建立可靠的位移预测模型对引水工程高边坡进行监测预警,提出将NeuralProphet模型引入到高边坡位移预测中,利用其趋势模块和自回归模块准确学习引水工程高边坡的位移规律,并采用Optuna框架对NeuralProphet模型的超参数进行优化,建立了Optuna-NeuralProphet引水工程高边坡位移预测模型,实现了对高边坡位移规律的准确预测.以引江济淮工程江淮沟通段高边坡为研究对象,对其位移监测数据进行训练和预测,并与NeuralProphet模型进行对比验证.结果表明:所构建的Optuna-NeuralProphet模型精度高,能够更有效地进行位移预测,为引水工程高边坡位移预测提供了一种新的思路和方法.
To establish a reliable displacement prediction model for monitoring and early warning of high slopes in water diversion projects,the NeuralProphet model was introduced into high slope displacement prediction.Its trend module and autoregressive module were utilized to accurately learn the displacement patterns of high slopes in water diversion projects.The Optuna framework was employed to optimize the hyperparameters of the NeuralProphet model,leading to the development of the Optuna-NeuralProphet high slope displacement prediction model for water diversion projects,achieving accurate prediction of high slope displacement patterns.Taking the high slope in the Jianghuai communication section of the Yangtze-to-Huaihe water diversion project as the research subject,displacement monitoring data were trained and predicted,and comparative validation was conducted with the NeuralProphet model.The results indicated that the constructed Optuna-NeuralProphet model exhibited high accuracy and can more effectively predict displacements,providing a new approach and method for high slope displacement prediction in water diversion projects.
王建军;韩炎;黄铭;杨厚岗;杨帆
安徽省水利水电勘测设计研究总院股份有限公司,安徽 合肥 230088安徽省水利水电勘测设计研究总院股份有限公司,安徽 合肥 230088合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽 合肥 230009合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽 合肥 230009合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽 合肥 230009
建筑与水利
位移预测引水工程高边坡NeuralProphet模型Optuna框架
displacement predictionhigh slope in diversion projectNeuralProphet modelOptuna framework
《江淮水利科技》 2026 (1)
16-20,5
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