贸易便利化对中国农产品出口东盟的三元边际影响研究OA

Based on the data on ASEAN trade facilitation levels and China's agricultural product exports to ASEAN from 2008 to 2023,this study empirically examines the impact mechanism of trade facilitation on agricultural product export growth by employing the ternary margin decomposition method and multiple mediation effect model.The results indicate that although the overall level of ASEAN trade facilitation has been on the rise,there is also a noticeable differentiation among the three tiers within the region.The growth of China's agricultural product exports to ASEAN is still primarily driven by the extensive margin and quantity margin,with the price margin having a non-significant effect.The mechanism analysis reveals that trade facilitation indirectly influences China's agricultural product exports through the extensive margin and quantity margin,while the price margin mediation effect fails to pass the test.Heterogeneity analysis shows significant differences in the marginal effects among different tiers of countries within ASEAN:the first-tier countries are dominated by the extensive margin,the second-tier countries have a prominent contribution from the quantity margin,and the third-tier countries have an ineffective price margin effect.Based on this,the study proposes targeted policies based on the internal tier differences among countries,promoting"ternary margin synergy",developing digital trade to break through the price margin bottleneck,and other countermeasures and suggestions.