首页|期刊导航|科技创新发展战略研究|基于博弈论的我国高技术产业"技术创新生态陷阱"传导关系研究

基于博弈论的我国高技术产业"技术创新生态陷阱"传导关系研究OA

Study on the Transmission Relationship of"Technological Innovation Ecosystem Trap"in China's High-Tech Industry Based on Game Theory

中文摘要英文摘要

因市场后入者难以进入相对固化的供应链体系,导致部分核心技术或产品研发陷入"突破难-迭代不足-应用不足-差距拉大"的发展困境,即"技术创新生态陷阱",已成为新时期制约我国高技术产业发展的新型瓶颈现象.然而,目前从技术创新生态角度,综合性地对其中所涉及的成果转化、国产替代和创新突破等问题进行有针对性的研究较为缺乏.因此,文章从我国高技术产业"研发-应用"的供应链主体入手,构建国内上游厂商、国际巨头供应商、国内下游厂商"三位一体"的演化博弈模型,分别在自由竞争和国际制裁两种情景下模拟各主体间的博弈关系,揭示产业技术创新生态陷阱的动态传导关系和传导机制,寻求我国高技术产业突破"卡脖子"技术创新生态陷阱的路径.研究发现:自由竞争情境下,国内下游厂商与国际巨头供应商已形成合作惯性,国内上游厂商突围难度较高,面临高质量产品开发难度高、下游市场需求不足、利润空间有限等多方面的挑战;国际制裁情境下,国内下游厂商与国际巨头供应商合作惯性可能会被强制打破,国内上游厂商获得迭代应用机会.据此,进一步从企业、产业和政府三个层面分别提出加大研发投入、深化协同合作,构建紧密融通协作生态、打造应用需求导向的研发供给模式和产业化路径,加大政策扶持、倾斜力度等对策建议.

Latecomers to the market find it difficult to break into the relatively solidified supply chain system,which traps the R&D of some core technologies or products in a vicious development cycle of"strained breakthroughs-inadequate iteration-insufficient application-widening gaps",a predicament defined as the technological innovation ecosystem trap.The so-called"technological innovation ecosystem trap"has become a new bottleneck restricting the development of China's high-tech industry in the new era.However,from the perspective of technological innovation ecosystems,there is currently a lack of targeted research comprehensively addressing issues such as technology commercialization,domestic substitution,and innovation breakthroughs.Therefore,this paper starts with the supply chain of R&D-application of high-tech industry in China,and constructs a three-in-one evolutionary game model of domestic upstream manufacturers,international giant suppliers,and domestic downstream manufacturers.The game dynamics among all participants are simulated under two scenarios of free competition and international sanctions,to reveal the dynamic transmission relationship and specific transmission mechanism of industrial technological innovation ecosystem trap,and seek the path breakthrough the bottleneck technological innovation ecosystem trap of China's high-tech industry.The research findings indicate that:in the context of free competition,domestic downstream manufacturers have formed a collaboration inertia with international leading suppliers,which renders domestic upstream manufacturers confronted with formidable barriers to breakthrough.These manufacturers are also plagued by multiple challenges,including great difficulties in high-quality product development,insufficient downstream market demand,and limited profit margins.In the context of international sanctions,however,the collaboration inertia between domestic downstream manufacturers and international leading suppliers may be forced to break,thereby enabling domestic upstream manufacturers to gain opportunities for iterative application.Accordingly,this paper further puts forward countermeasures and suggestions from the three levels of enterprise,industry and government,which includes increasing R&D investment and deepening collaborative cooperation;building a tightly integrated collaborative ecosystem,developing an application-driven R&D supply model,and establishing industrialization pathways;and increasing policy support and preferential measures.

陈相;李玲;关皓元;马渊博

广东省科学技术情报研究所,广东 广州 510033工业和信息化部电子第五研究所,广东 广州 511370广东省科学技术情报研究所,广东 广州 510033广东省科学技术情报研究所,广东 广州 510033

管理科学

高技术产业"技术创新生态陷阱"博弈论自由竞争国际制裁

high-tech industriestechnological innovation ecosystem trapgame theoryfree competitioninternational sanctions

《科技创新发展战略研究》 2026 (1)

38-57,20

广东省哲学社会科学规划一般项目"广东省高技术产业技术创新生态陷阱的传导机制及其防范研究"(GD24CYJ18)广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目"'逆全球化'新格局下的集成电路产业链路径重塑研究:基于竞合突围与双驱创新链模型"(2024A1515012797)广东省科技计划项目"广东科技创新强省建设中产业科技互促双强若干重点问题研究"(2025B0808010001),"科技创新宏观决策研究"(2024B0808010001)

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